Via the Washington Post, a long article worth reading: Swine Flu Spurs Experts to Rethink Definition of Pandemic. Excerpt:
Virtually every assumption made since planning for a pandemic began in earnest after the deadly “bird flu” outbreak of 2004 in Southeast Asia has been contradicted by the six-week history of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1).
Although they acknowledged there might be alternative scenarios, nearly every expert assumed that the next pandemic strain would jump from birds to human beings someplace in Asia.
They also assumed that, like the H5N1 bird flu virus, which is lethal in 60 percent of people who catch it, the new strain would be recognized immediately and would have to be fought with drastic measures.
Instead, the virus emerged in North America, appears to have come from pigs, had spread widely by the time it was noticed, and kills less than 1 percent of the people it infects.
The world expected a fastball pitcher throwing smoke. Instead, it got a junk-baller who is throwing everyone off balance.
“Everyone was thinking about H5N1 and the possibility that we would be in for partial global population collapse,” said David S. Fedson, a physician, influenza expert and former drug company executive who has written extensively on pandemic planning.
“We never addressed severity, because we knew it would be severe. And now we have this funny virus coming out of pigs.”
