Ida at Bird Flu Information Corner has published one of the most important H5N1 posts of the year: Indonesia ::: H5N1 situation update 2009. Excerpt:
Since 1 January to 28 December 2009, a total 20 H5N1 cases reported in Indonesia. Of those confirmed cases, 19 have been fatal. First H5N1 case was reported from Bogor on 9 January, and latest was reported from South Jakarta on 23 September 2009.
Total cumulative number of H5N1 in Indonesia since 2005 to 2009 is 161 with 134 deaths.
This information is broadcasted by Public Communication Center, General Secretary Ministry of Health.
This is more bird flu information from Indonesia than we’ve received in over a year. As brief as it is, it has some important implications.
The Indonesian case fatality ratio is now 83 percent, slightly higher than the 81 percent before the news blackout. This indicates the health system isn’t catching cases early, or isn’t dealing with them effectively.
The CFR for 2009 has been 95 percent. It may be that cases are breaking out in remote villages far from healthcare services, or that H5N1 has acquired greater lethality.
It also means the Ministry of Health has changed its policy, at least to some extent, and may start sharing H5N1 data with WHO on a regular basis—as it’s legally supposed to under the terms of its membership in WHO.
Mike Coston at Avian Flu Diary has some useful discussion of this news.
