Via Google News, Helen Branswell of The Canadian Press writes: Is there a 3rd wave of H1N1 in the cards for this winter? Who knows? Excerpt:
The current wave of H1N1 activity may have peaked in all provinces and territories, the Public Health Agency of Canada says in its latest assessment on the state of the pandemic.
But if transmission of the virus is indeed on the downward slope, does that mean the end is in sight for Canada? Or is a third wave of illness sometime this winter in the cards?
With the notoriously unpredictable influenza, it’s pretty much anyone’s guess.
“I think if you ask a group of so-called influenza experts, you’re going to get different views,” says Dr. Frederick Hayden, an influenza expert who splits his time between at the University of Virginia and Britain’s Wellcome Trust, a charity that funds biomedical research.
Hayden is betting on “a bump” of activity after Christmas, because so many people remain susceptible to the virus. Though whether that will be a full wave or just an upswing in cases, he’s not sure.
Regardless of where the experts come down on the question of a third wave, they say one thing is a safe bet. Whether it’s this winter or next, swine flu will be back.
That’s something people vacillating over the value of getting vaccinated at this point should keep in mind, says Dr. Danuta Skowronski, an influenza epidemiologist at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control.
“The way I see it, basically people have two choices in general: Get immunized or get infected,” she says. “Because this virus isn’t going anywhere. It’s ours now.”
If this outbreak follows the pattern of previous pandemics - and there’s no reason to believe it won’t - the pandemic virus and its descendants will be among us for some undefined period of time. It could be years, it could be decades.
