Mike Coston at Avian Flu Diary has the story: Japan: Another Poultry Farm Being Tested For Bird Flu. Excerpt:
Via Treyfish and Makoto on FluTrackers, we’ve multiple Japanese language media reports this morning regarding a poultry farm – this time in Kagoshima prefecture (near Izumi City where over-wintering Hooded Cranes died from the H5N1 virus last December) being tested for bird flu.
(Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:06:00 +0000)
# 5256
Via Treyfish and Makoto on FluTrackers, we’ve multiple Japanese language media reports this morning regarding a poultry farm – this time in Kagoshima prefecture (near Izumi City where over-wintering Hooded Cranes died from the H5N1 virus last December) being tested for bird flu.
For earlier reports from this region, see Japan: 5 Hooded Cranes Test Positive For H5N1 and Japan’s Bird Flu Dilemma.
Rapid tests, and the number of recent poultry deaths on this medium sized farm, suggest bird flu. But the results of full viral testing won’t be known for several hours.
Most recent suspected outbreak near Izumi City.
Kagoshima prefecture, in addition to hosting a major wild bird preserve, is a major poultry producing region. An outbreak here could have a serious impact on the industry.
If a positive result is returned, this will make the 3rd poultry farm in a week, and the 4th poultry farm in three months, to test positive for the virus in Japan.
In the meantime, you can follow preliminary reports as they come in on this FluTrackers Thread.
(Tue, 25 Jan 2011 11:19:00 +0000)
# 5256
At roughly the mid-way point of the 2010-2011 European flu season, the ECDC has produced an interim risk assessment on the remainder of this year’s flu season.
I’ve provided the link, abstract, and a few excerpts from the executive summary - but this 16 page pdf file is chock full of epidemiological and virological details, and is well worth reviewing in its entirety.
ECDC Forward Look Risk Assessment: Seasonal influenza 2010–2011 in Europe
- 25 Jan 2011
ABSTRACT
The 2010/11 seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe are dominated so far by the A(H1N1)2009 viruses which emerged in the 2009 pandemic, although these are now considered seasonal viruses. This is an interim risk assessment and will be up-dated at intervals as more data and analyses emerge.
Excerpts:
Executive summary
The 2010/11 seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe are dominated so far by the A(H1N1)2009 viruses which emerged in the 2009 pandemic, although these are now considered seasonal viruses. There are also some B viruses circulating.Both are causing some severe disease and premature deaths but the preliminary data indicate that 90% of the fatalities
are due to A(H1N1)2009.
This is the first European influenza season after the 2009 pandemic. Many of the features and required countermeasures are the same as for the previous seasonal influenzas (which ran until the 2008/09 season). However, there are important differences which Europe needs to take into consideration, notably the type of people who are most affected
and experiencing severe disease.
<SNIP>
A broad pattern of west to east progression of influenza epidemics is underway, such as has been seen in previous years. Hence the experience of the Western countries can inform those further to the east of the European Union. All these considerations constitute the justification for this Interim ECDC Risk Assessment, which will be updated at
intervals.
Those mostly reported as experiencing severe disease or dying prematurely are those adults below the age of 65 years and children in the clinical risk groups. These constitute over 80% of cases reported.
<SNIP>
The circulating viruses have not as yet changed or mutated, and it is expected that the seasonal vaccines will be effective in preventing disease. ECDC-coordinated studies in the pandemic found up to 80% effectiveness for vaccines containing A(H1N1)2009. Other observational studies have confirmed this.
<SNIP>
The scientific evidence to date provides justification for the following countermeasures already adopted by some countries in addition to the usual influenza personal protective measures (early self isolation, respiratory hygiene and
hand-washing):
- Continued vaccination of all those recommended for vaccination following national guidelines but especially clinical risk groups, including pregnant women, especially as it seems that the vaccine provides some protection even just a week after injection. However, there may be vaccine availability, logistical and administrative issues that will make this difficult in some settings.
- Use of antiviral treatment in those presenting with severe influenza-like illness, pending virological confirmation, and in those with risk factors with milder disease.
- Alerting higher level healthcare services of potential increased numbers of influenza patients this winter, potentially already in the next few weeks.
- Advising clinicians to be vigilant to the possibility of severe illness due to bacterial co-infection with influenza, including invasive group A streptococcal, pneumococcal and meningococcal infection, and to be aware of the possibility of such bacterial co-infection in people with flu-like illness.
- Use or creation of clinical networks for surveillance, evaluation and sharing of clinical experience.
This is an interim risk assessment and will be up-dated at intervals as more data and analyses emerge.
2
(Tue, 25 Jan 2011 10:56:00 +0000)
# 5255
The only constant about flu viruses is that they are always changing. Among the world’s viruses, influenza are some of the most adept at reinventing themselves in order to get around mankind’s acquired immunity.
Since influenza strains spread amazingly well, herd immunity can build rapidly. Without the ability to evade this immunity, influenza viruses would soon run out of susceptible hosts.
The two methods that influenza viruses use to evolve are antigenic drift (small mutations, sometimes single amino acid substitutions) and antigenic shift (large, often dramatic changes due to viral reassortment).
Drift happens slowly, and incrementally, and is the reason why the flu vaccine must be updated and changed every year or two.
Shift, or reassortment, happens abruptly when two different influenza viruses co-infect the same host and swap genetic material.
Influenza A viruses have 8 gene segments (PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP, NA, M1, M2, NS1, NS2).
Which means that any two compatible influenza viruses could conceivably – and under the right conditions – generate more than 250 different combinations by swapping one or more of their 8 (potentially) interchangeable gene segments.
The key words being “under the right conditions”.
If it were easy, or a common occurrence, we’d be up to our hip boots in new, reassorted viruses all the time.
But it happens often enough that we recognize it as a real threat. Shift is how new pandemic strains are born, and it was precisely the mechanism that created the 2009 `swine’ flu strain.
Which brings us to a new study, which appears today in the CDC’s EID Journal, that looks at the potential for the 2009 H1N1 virus to reassort with other currently circulating flu viruses and create a more virulent flu strain.
You’ll, no doubt, recognize some of the authors of this paper, notably Ab Osterhaus and Ron Fouchier. I’ve reproduced the link, and the abstract (slightly reformatted for readability) below.
Volume 17, Number 2–February 2011
Research
Possible Increased Pathogenicity of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Virus upon Reassortment
Eefje J.A. Schrauwen, Sander Herfst, Salin Chutinimitkul, Theo M. Bestebroer, Guus F. Rimmelzwaan, Albert D.M.E. Osterhaus, Thijs Kuiken, and Ron A.M. Fouchier
Abstract
Since emergence of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in April 2009, three influenza A viruses—seasonal (H3N2), seasonal (H1N1), and pandemic (H1N1) 2009—have circulated in humans. Genetic reassortment between these viruses could result in enhanced pathogenicity.
We compared 4 reassortant viruses with favorable in vitro replication properties with the wild-type pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus with respect to replication kinetics in vitro and pathogenicity and transmission in ferrets.
Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses containing basic polymerase 2 alone or in combination with acidic polymerase of seasonal (H1N1) virus were attenuated in ferrets.
In contrast, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 with neuraminidase of seasonal (H3N2) virus resulted in increased virus replication and more severe pulmonary lesions.
The data show that pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus has the potential to reassort with seasonal influenza viruses, which may result in increased pathogenicity while it maintains the capacity of transmission through aerosols or respiratory droplets.
Since you could wait a very long time indeed for reassortments like these to occur naturally - in order to study them – man made flu viruses must be created in the laboratory using reverse genetics.
To simplify matters, these researchers only looked at four laboratory generated reassortments out hundreds of possible combinations, selecting those that replicated well in vitro.
While some of these hybrid viruses were weaker that the original 2009 H1N1 virus, reassortants incorporating the NA (neuraminidase) gene from the seasonal H3N2 virus proved more pathogenic (at least in ferrets).
All of these tested reassortants retained `biological fitness’ and could be transmitted among ferrets through aerosol or respiratory droplets.
The authors state:
We conclude that the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus has the potential to reassort with seasonal influenza virus A (H1N1) and influenza virus A (H3N2) and that such reassortment events could result in viruses with increased pathogenicity in ferrets.
Although increased pathogenicity in ferrets cannot be extrapolated directly to increased pathogenicity in humans, ferrets are susceptible to natural infection and respiratory disease and lung pathology develop in a manner similar to that in humans infected with seasonal, avian, or pandemic influenza viruses.
Follow the above link to read about how the tests were conducted, some of the limitations on these sorts of experiments, and additional details on the results.
If all of this sound vaguely familiar, last November we saw another study (see mBio: A/H1N1 Potential For Mutation) that looked at the potential for the 2009 H1N1 virus to become more pathogenic through the more common process; antigenic `drift’.
Their conclusion read, in part:
We report that the emergence of an A/H1N1 pandemic strain of higher virulence is possible and that, despite their lack of detection thus far in humans, viable seasonal/pandemic virus reassortants can be generated.
While both of these studies point to the potential for the 2009 H1N1 virus to either drift or shift to a more virulent strain, when – or even if – that might ever happen is impossible to say.
But they do serve as reminders of how quickly flu strains can change, and of the pressing need to increase our global surveillance capabilities so that we can spot these emerging strains as early as possible.
(Mon, 24 Jan 2011 19:02:00 +0000)
# 5254
A reminder, as promised earlier this month, about the first annual Great Oregon ShakeOut to be held later this week.
Just two days from now, the state of Oregon will hold their first Great Oregon ShakeOut; a statewide earthquake disaster drill.
It will run concurrently with their cross border neighbor’s Great British Columbia ShakeOut.
Essentially, at the same time it is happening in British Columbia:
At 10:15 a.m. on January 26, 2011,* thousands of Oregonians will “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” in The Great Oregon ShakeOut, the largest earthquake drill in Oregon history!
Register now to participate and be counted.
All of this is based on the highly successful Great California ShakeOut (see The Great California Shakeout) model, which this past October saw more than 7 million participants.
As California has been doing this for several years, public awareness and participation is very high. Since this is the first year for the Oregon, BC, and Central U.S. versions, the number of people signed up so far is considerably lower – but will hopefully expand over the next few years as these events are publicized.
While we tend to think that truly disastrous earthquakes only happen in other countries, the reality is, the United States and Canada are vulnerable to rare, but devastating seismic activity as well.
Here is a snapshot of recent seismic activity in the Continental U.S. over the past week. More than 693 small quakes were recorded (not including micro-quakes of magnitudes less than 1).
As you can see, while California and Alaska saw the bulk of the activity, the Pacific Northwest, some western states, and the Central U.S., both saw some seismic activity.
And earthquakes are not unheard of in New England, the Great Lake States, or even in the deep South. The USGS map below shows that most of the United State’s population lives in a seismically active region.
Later this Spring, 8 mid-west states will hold their very first Great Central U.S. ShakeOut at 10:15am on April 28th.
Earthquakes, like Hurricanes, Tornados, Floods, and yes . . . even pandemics . . . are hazards everyone should be aware of, and prepared to deal with.
Every individual or family should have a disaster plan, a good first aid kit, a `bug-out bag’, and sufficient emergency supplies to last a bare minimum of 72 hours.
A few of my essays on home preparedness include:
In An Emergency, Who Has Your Back?
Inside My Bug Out Bag
Those Who Forget Their History . . .
The Gift Of Preparedness
Red Cross Unveils `Do More Than Cross Your Fingers’ Campaign
For more potentially life saving preparedness information, go to:
FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
(Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:48:00 +0000)
# 5253
Regular readers of this blog are no doubt aware that while I accept there are some (mostly minor) risks to vaccines, that I am decidedly (and unapologetically) pro-vaccination.
Of course, I’m old enough to remember a time when American children were still being crippled by polio and miserable childhood diseases like measles, mumps, and chickenpox were practically rites of passage.
Thankfully, by the time I arrived on the scene - in the early 1950s - Pertussis, Diphtheria, and Tetanus (still common when my father was a boy) were no longer major disease players here in the United States.
And the reason for the decline of all of these (and many more) diseases in developed countries has been largely due to the use of vaccines.
While I’ve taken the anti-vaccination crowd to task a number of times in these pages (for example, see The Monsters Are Due On Vaccine Street), I don’t do so every day because my readers are generally pretty well informed on these issues, and I’d be preaching to the choir.
But I’m always pleased when I find a rational discussion of vaccines on the Internet.
Today, as an example, I’m listening to Vincent Racaniello’s latest TWiV (This Week In Virology) podcast, with co-host Rich Condit and special guest Seth Mnookin, author of The Panic Virus, which deals with the anti-vaccine movement, autism, and the media’s coverage of science.
TWiV 117: The Panic Virus with Seth Mnookin
23 January 2011
Hosts: Vincent Racaniello, Rich Condit, and Seth Mnookin
On episode #117 of the podcast This Week in Virology, Vincent and Rich converse with Seth Mnookin, author of The Panic Virus, about vaccines, autism, thimerosal, and a contagion of human unreason run wild.
Right click to download TWiV #117 (69 MB .mp3, 96 minutes).
Well worth 96 minutes of your time.
And if you aren’t a regular listening to TWiV (and the newer TWiP - This Week in Parasitism) you should give them a shot.
(Mon, 24 Jan 2011 11:56:00 +0000)
# 5252
After the discovery of H5N1 at a second Miyazaki Prefecture poultry farm over the weekend (see sidebar news item), the decision has been made to cull another 400,000 birds in a bid to contain the virus.
More than 160 Ground Self-Defense Force troops are reportedly being sent to Miyazaki Prefecture to assist in the eradication and containment operation, and Prime Minister Naoto Kan has ordered the formation of a special task force to halt the spread of this disease.
The stakes here are high, as the rapidly spreading bird flu outbreak in nearby South Korea demonstrates.
Already in that country, well over 30 farms have been affected, and millions of birds have been destroyed.
For blow-by-blow details of the situation in Miyazaki City, Makoto and others on FluTrackers maintain an extensive thread containing numerous local news reports and official Miyazaki prefecture statements.
Overlapping 10 km quarantine regions & more than 3 dozen disinfection points from the Miyazaki Prefecture website.
The number of chickens within these quarantine zones varies depending upon the news source. Estimates run anywhere from 1.5 million to 4 million birds.
NHK World News has a brief English video news report on this outbreak which you can view here.
As Japan battles this latest outbreak, the Hong Kong government has announced the immediate suspension of the processing of applications for the import of poultry and poultry products from Japan.
Although the possibility of human infection among the cullers and farm workers can’t be ruled out, prophylactic antivirals, protective suits, and strict decontamination procedures are being used to greatly reduce those risks.
Photo Credit - the Miyazaki Prefecture website.
For now, these outbreaks represent primarily an agricultural and economic threat.
But of course, the concern remains that given enough opportunities, the H5N1 virus could someday adapt to human physiology and present a pandemic risk.
So we watch these outbreaks with particular interest.
Arkanoid Legent continues to do a superb job of covering infectious diseases. For example, this report from KUNA: Egyptian doctor dies of swine flu. Excerpt:
An Egyptian doctor has died of swine flu, the Ministry of Health said Sunday.
It said the 51-year-old doctor, from Al-Sharqiya district, northern Cairo, did not ask for medical advice when symptoms appeared had taken medication for flu by himself, Ministry spokesman Dr. Abdulrahman Shaheen said in a statement.
Via the Hong Kong government website: Public urged to get flu jabs. Excerpt:
Under Secretary for Food & Health Prof Gabriel Leung urges the public, particularly high-risk groups and medical staff, to get flu jabs soon, as the flu situation will worsen in the next few weeks.
Speaking on a radio talk show today, Prof Leung said the number of flu cases have been rising in the past three weeks, triggering a surge in demand for outpatient services and admissions.
As Hong Kong has entered the flu winter peak, he expects more cases will be recorded in the next few weeks with the pinnacle arriving about two weeks after the Chinese New Year.
Although the winter peak arrived early, Prof Leung said it is too soon to predict whether it will finish early, depending on factors such as how long the colder weather will persist and how many people get the vaccination.
The Government is highly concerned about the flu situation while the Hospital Authority has outlined contingency measures to cope with the uptick in demand.
Via Al-Masry Al-Youm: Egypt to implement comprehensive plan to combat bird flu. Excerpt:
The Ministry of Agriculture announced the implementation of a comprehensive plan to combat 2011’s avian influenza in bird farms.
Approximately 12,000 veterinarians and their assistants will participate in the nationwide plan.
In statements to the press on Saturday, Minister of Agriculture Amin Abaza said that an emergency unit has been set up at the General Authority for Veterinary Services to contain the spread of the disease and ensure that farms are applying the minimum bio-safety standards.
Mohamed Mostafa al-Garhi, head of the General Authority for Veterinary Services, said that around 16,000 farms will be inspected, adding that farm owners are willing to abide by the standards.
But the report goes on to say that five million Egyptian families raise poultry, and unless they’re also part of this plan, H5N1 will continue.
