Influenza Virus Mashup

(Mon, 24 May 2010 12:48:00 +0000)

 

 

# 4591

 

 

There are few subjects more divisive amongst parents than the debate over the wisdom and safety of giving the their children the growing list of vaccinations recommended by the CDC.

 

 

Despite numerous studies showing a sharp reduction in many serious childhood illnesses due to these vaccines a number of parents are now deciding to delay or forgo many of these pediatric vaccinations out of fears that too many vaccinations, too soon can cause developmental problems such as Autism.

 

Many of these fears have been stoked by anti-vaccine activists, including some doctors, who have warned of a theorized connection between the mercury compound thimerosal (used as a preservative) and later childhood mental development.

 

 

Out of an abundance of caution, despite no compelling evidence of a connection between autism and thimerosal, the FDA began urging drug manufacturers to phase out the controversial preservative from most childhood vaccines about a decade ago. 

 

For those concerned over current mercury levels in these vaccines, the FDA maintains an excellent website with information on Thimerosal in Vaccines (many of which are now thimerosal free).

 

Today we’ve news of a new study, published in the Journal of Pediatrics, that may relieve some of the concerns that parents of kids who received these vaccines in the past might still have.

 

The study compares the mental development over 7 to 10 years of kids who received the recommended early vaccines, against those who either delayed receiving them, or skipped them altogether.

 

The authors found that infants who received the full regimen of shots did no worse developmentally (and in some cases did better), than children who skipped or delayed getting the shots.

 

First, a Reuters story on this study, followed by excerpts the journal abstract.

 

Many vaccines at once OK for kids’ brains: study

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Parents can rest assured that getting kids their vaccine shots on time will not hurt their mental skills later on, doctors said on Monday.

“A lot of parents are concerned that children receive too many vaccines too soon,” said Dr. Michael J. Smith, of the University of Louisville School of Medicine in Kentucky. Some parents skip recommended vaccines out of fear of autism, for instance, and some choose to space out shots.

(continue  . . . )

 

 

Published online May 24, 2010
PEDIATRICS (doi:10.1542/peds.2009-2489)

On-time Vaccine Receipt in the First Year Does Not Adversely Affect Neuropsychological Outcomes

Michael J. Smith, MD, MSCE, Charles R. Woods, MD, MS

Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville School of Medicine, Louisville, Kentucky

Objectives To determine whether children who received recommended vaccines on time during the first year of life had different neuropsychological outcomes at 7 to 10 years of age as compared with children with delayed receipt or nonreceipt of these vaccines.

<SNIP>

Results Timely vaccination was associated with better performance on 12 outcomes in univariate testing and remained associated with better performance for 2 outcomes in multivariable analyses. No statistically significant differences favored delayed receipt. In secondary analyses, children with the greatest vaccine exposure during the first 7 months of life performed better than children with the least vaccine exposure on 15 outcomes in univariate testing; these differences did not persist in multivariable analyses. No statistically significant differences favored the less vaccinated children.

Conclusions Timely vaccination during infancy has no adverse effect on neuropsychological outcomes 7 to 10 years later. These data may reassure parents who are concerned that children receive too many vaccines too soon.

Via Xinhua: Brazil prolongs vaccination against A/H1N1 flu.

Brazil’s Health Ministry announced on Friday its decision to prolong the national campaign of vaccination against the A/H1N1 flu until June 2. 

The campaign, which started in early March, was due to end this Friday. 

The ministry also decided to extend the vaccination to children aged two to five years old. Initially, the campaign targeted only children aged six months to two years old, adults aged 20 to 39, elders, pregnant women and people with chronic health conditions such as diabetes or heart diseases. 

In order to include the children aged two to five in the campaign, the Brazilian government will need 10.8 million extra doses of the flu vaccine. The children will take the vaccine in two turns, with a gap of three weeks between the doses. 

Health Minister Jose Gomes Temporao also made a balance of the campaign so far. According to him, since March over 61 million Brazilians have been vaccinated against H1N1 flu. 

That represents about 70 percent of the campaign’s goal. Among pregnant women, 68 percent were vaccinated, much lower than the 80 percent expected by the Ministry. Among adults aged 20 to 29, 77 percent were vaccinated, and among those aged 30 to 39, only 37 percent were immunized against the H1N1 flu.

Via Xinhua: Brazil prolongs vaccination against A/H1N1 flu.

Brazil’s Health Ministry announced on Friday its decision to prolong the national campaign of vaccination against the A/H1N1 flu until June 2. 

The campaign, which started in early March, was due to end this Friday. 

The ministry also decided to extend the vaccination to children aged two to five years old. Initially, the campaign targeted only children aged six months to two years old, adults aged 20 to 39, elders, pregnant women and people with chronic health conditions such as diabetes or heart diseases. 

In order to include the children aged two to five in the campaign, the Brazilian government will need 10.8 million extra doses of the flu vaccine. The children will take the vaccine in two turns, with a gap of three weeks between the doses. 

Health Minister Jose Gomes Temporao also made a balance of the campaign so far. According to him, since March over 61 million Brazilians have been vaccinated against H1N1 flu. 

That represents about 70 percent of the campaign’s goal. Among pregnant women, 68 percent were vaccinated, much lower than the 80 percent expected by the Ministry. Among adults aged 20 to 29, 77 percent were vaccinated, and among those aged 30 to 39, only 37 percent were immunized against the H1N1 flu.

(Sun, 23 May 2010 14:14:00 +0000)

 

 

# 4590

 

 

Today is the first day of 2010’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week, with the emphasis on hurricane basics and history of these often devastating storms.

 

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is cyclical, and as a boy growing up in Florida I caught the tail end of the last upswing in tropical activity.

 

We’ve a very neat tool from the NOAA Coastal Services Center that allows you to input your zip code, storm types, year ranges, and distances to produce storm tracks that have affected your area.

 

http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

 

Here are the storm tracks of the hurricanes that crossed Florida during my youth, in the years between 1954-1972.

 

As you can imagine, these made quite an impression on me growing up.

 

Then we went into a 20+ year period where relatively few storms threatened Florida.  Here are the storms that came close between 1973 and 1994.

 

 

Quite a difference.   

 

And during this period of quiescence, millions of people moved to Florida, many of whom have built on vulnerable barrier islands and along the coast. 

 

Most have no idea what a `real’ hurricane would be like.

 

But now we’ve returned to a heightened level of Atlantic and Gulf hurricane activity, and here are the storms that hit Florida between 1995 and 2008.

 

 

No one knows what 2010 will bring, as there can be a lot of variability between years even in an up-cycle.  But forecasters warn us to expect an active season.

 

SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) are elevated across much of the Atlantic and the Gulf, and a weakening El Nino in the Pacific both point to increased storm activity. Where those storms go is harder to predict.

 

Of course, it isn’t just Florida or the Gulf States at risk.  

There have been cycles within cycles, years where storms have tended to track north along the eastern seaboard instead of south and into the Gulf of Mexico.  

 

New York City, and much of New England, is considered `overdue’ for a major hurricane. 

 

Here is a final look at hurricanes that came within 100 miles of Boston, MA over the past 80 years.

 

 

 

Ample evidence that Hurricanes aren’t just a Florida problem. 

 

I hope everyone will take the time this week to check their hurricane supplies, go over their emergency plans, and decide now what they will do if a storm threatens. 

 

Once a storm appears to be targeting your area, you may only have a few hours to prepare or evacuate.

Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include:

 

http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm

http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml

(Sun, 23 May 2010 14:14:00 +0000)

 

 

# 4590

 

 

Today is the first day of 2010’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week, with the emphasis on hurricane basics and history of these often devastating storms.

 

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is cyclical, and as a boy growing up in Florida I caught the tail end of the last upswing in tropical activity.

 

We’ve a very neat tool from the NOAA Coastal Services Center that allows you to input your zip code, storm types, year ranges, and distances to produce storm tracks that have affected your area.

 

http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

 

Here are the storm tracks of the hurricanes that crossed Florida during my youth, in the years between 1954-1972.

 

As you can imagine, these made quite an impression on me growing up.

 

Then we went into a 20+ year period where relatively few storms threatened Florida.  Here are the storms that came close between 1973 and 1994.

 

 

Quite a difference.   

 

And during this period of quiescence, millions of people moved to Florida, many of whom have built on vulnerable barrier islands and along the coast. 

 

Most have no idea what a `real’ hurricane would be like.

 

But now we’ve returned to a heightened level of Atlantic and Gulf hurricane activity, and here are the storms that hit Florida between 1995 and 2008.

 

 

No one knows what 2010 will bring, as there can be a lot of variability between years even in an up-cycle.  But forecasters warn us to expect an active season.

 

SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) are elevated across much of the Atlantic and the Gulf, and a weakening El Nino in the Pacific both point to increased storm activity. Where those storms go is harder to predict.

 

Of course, it isn’t just Florida or the Gulf States at risk.  

There have been cycles within cycles, years where storms have tended to track north along the eastern seaboard instead of south and into the Gulf of Mexico.  

 

New York City, and much of New England, is considered `overdue’ for a major hurricane. 

 

Here is a final look at hurricanes that came within 100 miles of Boston, MA over the past 80 years.

 

 

 

Ample evidence that Hurricanes aren’t just a Florida problem. 

 

I hope everyone will take the time this week to check their hurricane supplies, go over their emergency plans, and decide now what they will do if a storm threatens. 

 

Once a storm appears to be targeting your area, you may only have a few hours to prepare or evacuate.

Some essential hurricane resources to get you started include:

 

http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm

http://www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml

Via Arkanoid Legent: Malaysia : Current Situation of Influenza A (H1N1) - May 23, 2010. Excerpt:

Until 8:00 am on May 23, 2010, the Ministry received a total of two (2) reports of ILI cluster cases from the state of Selangor as listed in Appendix 1. 

Meanwhile, until 5:30 pm on May 22, 2010, a total of 31 confirmed positive cases of influenza A (H1N1) were reported for a cumulative number of 14,662 cases to date.

(Sun, 23 May 2010 13:00:00 +0000)

 

# 4589

 

 

We’ve a new report in Eurosurveillance on a recent spike in Hantavirus infections in Germany, and so today seems like a good day to discuss this little known pathogen.

 

`Hantavirus’ is a  a collective term for a group of viruses –carried by various types of  rodents - that vary in distribution, symptomology, and severity around the world. 

 

While dozens of hantaviruses have been identified, not all cause disease in humans.

 

Like the majority of emerging infectious diseases, Hantavirus is a zoonotic disease; one that can be transmitted between (or are shared by) animals and humans.  

 

The clinical symptoms of Hantavirus were first recognized by western medicine back in the early 1950s during the Korean war, when 3,000 UN troops stationed there were infected with a mysterious viral illness. 

 

The mortality rate was 10%-15%, with patients experiencing fever, hypotension, renal failure, and internal bleeding (disseminated intravascular coagulation).

 

Originally called Korean Hemorrhagic Fever, this condition is now known as Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). Although it was suspected that rodents were the main epidemiological vector, the pathogen responsible wasn’t isolated until the 1970s.

 

Scientists have since identified dozens of viruses within the genus Hantavirus (named after the Hantaan River of Korea) from all around the world. 

 

In Europe and Asia the hantavirus commonly presents as HFRS, and the mortality rate varies from 1% to 15% depending upon the specific hantavirus involved.  China reports the highest incidence of HFRS with between 20,000 – 100,000 cases each year.

 

In the Americas, while infection is far less common, Hantavirus usually presents as Hantavirus Cardio-Pulmonary Syndrome (HCPS or sometimes just HPS), a more severe disease with a fatality rate of between 30% and 50%.

HCPS is marked by respiratory distress (ARDS) and cardiovascular collapse.

 

In the United States, only about 500 cases of HCPS have been identified (across 33 states, but most occurring in the Southwest). Exposure to mice or rodents, and their droppings, has been established as the primary vector for this virus. 

 

So, to sum up, Hantaviruses in Europe and Asia present with a Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, while in the Americas it is less common and generally (but not always)presents as a severe respiratory distress with cardiovascular shock.

 

This week, Eurosurveillance has a report on a steep rise in Hantavirus infections in Germany during the month of April.  

 

The good news here is that the Hantavirus being reported here is the Puumala virus, which generally has the mildest symptoms and lowest mortality of the hantaviruses known to infect humans.

 

Eurosurveillance, Volume 15, Issue 20, 20 May 2010

Rapid communications

 

Steep rise in notified hantavirus infections in Germany, April 2010

---

Faber MS, Ulrich RG, Frank C, Brockmann SO, Pfaff GM, Jacob J, Krüger DH, Stark K. Steep rise in notified hantavirus infections in Germany, April 2010. Euro Surveill. 2010;15(20):pii=19574.

---

From January to April 2010, 396 hantavirus infections were notified in Germany, a considerable increase compared with previous years (mean: 83 for January–April 2004–2009) including the record-setting year, 2007 (n=232 January–April).

Most patients are residents of known Puumala virus endemic areas in southern Germany. The recent increase in notified hantavirus infections is probably due to an increased population density of the main animal reservoir, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus).

(Continue . . . )

 

The chart below shows the yearly variability of reported Hantavirus infections in Germany, with 2007 having been a particularly active year.  

 

Outbreaks of Puumala virus tend to spike every 3 or 4 years and farm workers, who are most likely to come in contact with the dust from Bank Vole droppings, are the most common victims.

 

 

 

The `New World’ versions of Hantavirus, including some that are found in South America, produces more severe disease. The CDC recently posted a short audio podcast on this rare, but often fatal, infection.

 

 

 

Of Mice and Man (A Cup of Health with CDC)

Listen To This Podcast (4:38)

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome, or HPS, is a disease that is caused by people coming in contact with rodents. HPS is caught when dirt or dust containing rodent excretion or other bodily fluids is stirred up and breathed in or absorbed through broken skin. The result is a serious condition in which one of three reported cases has been fatal. In this podcast, Dr. Barbara Knust discusses HPS.  Created: 1/14/2010 by MMWR.   Date Released: 1/14/2010.

 

 

Last December the MMWR published this account of 5 rare pediatric cases of HPS from four states during 2009.

 

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in Five Pediatric Patients — Four States, 2009

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a reportable infectious disease with a high case-fatality rate, transmitted to humans by exposure to rodents.

 

Each year, 20–40 cases of HPS occur in the United States; cases in persons aged <17 years make up fewer than 7% of those cases, and cases in children aged <10 years are exceptionally rare.

CDC received reports of five pediatric cases of HPS occurring during May 16–November 25, 2009, among children aged 6–14 years from Arizona, California, Colorado, and Washington. Three of the children were aged <10 years, and all five had exposure to rodents.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

The Special Pathogens Branch of the CDC has some information to help you prevent exposure and infection from hantaviruses on their  Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome: What You Need To Know webpage.

 

The following is just an excerpt, follow the link to read the entire guide.

 

 

RESERVOIR

The deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) is the primary reservoir of the hantavirus that causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the United States.

 

TRANSMISSION

Infected rodents shed the virus through urine, droppings, and saliva. HPS is transmitted to humans through a process called aerosolization. Aerosolization occurs when dried materials contaminated by rodent excreta or saliva are disturbed. Humans become infected by breathing in these infectious aerosols.

 

HPS in the United States cannot be transmitted from one person to another.

 

HPS in the United States is not known to be transmitted by farm animals, dogs, or cats or from rodents purchased from a pet store.

 

RISK

Anything that puts you in contact with fresh rodent urine, droppings, saliva or nesting materials can place you at risk for infection.

 

VIRUS

Hantaviruses have been shown to be viable in the environment for 2 to 3 days at normal room temperature. The ultraviolet rays in sunlight kill hantaviruses.

 

PREVENTION

Rodent control in and around the home remains the primary strategy for preventing hantavirus infection.

 

CLEANING

Use a bleach solution or household disinfectant to effectively deactivate hantaviruses when cleaning rodent infestations.

 

 

 

I’ve a keen personal interest in the Hantavirus because my ex-wife’s cousin (Ron Voorhees) was one of the original investigators in the famous 4 corner’s outbreak of Hantavirus in 1993 when he worked as an epidemiologist for the state of New Mexico. 

 

It was during this outbreak that the  New World `Sin Nombre’ (Spanish for `No Name’) Hantavirus was identified, and found to be widely prevalent in its natural host, the deer mouse.

 

If you would like to learn more about the history of that outbreak, and the epidemiological work done to identify the pathogen, I can direct you to an excellent account at:

 

Tracking a Mystery Disease:
The Detailed Story of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome

Via Arkanoid Legent: Malaysia : Current Situation of Influenza A (H1N1) - May 23, 2010. Excerpt:

Until 8:00 am on May 23, 2010, the Ministry received a total of two (2) reports of ILI cluster cases from the state of Selangor as listed in Appendix 1. 

Meanwhile, until 5:30 pm on May 22, 2010, a total of 31 confirmed positive cases of influenza A (H1N1) were reported for a cumulative number of 14,662 cases to date.

(Sun, 23 May 2010 13:00:00 +0000)

 

# 4589

 

 

We’ve a new report in Eurosurveillance on a recent spike in Hantavirus infections in Germany, and so today seems like a good day to discuss this little known pathogen.

 

`Hantavirus’ is a  a collective term for a group of viruses –carried by various types of  rodents - that vary in distribution, symptomology, and severity around the world. 

 

While dozens of hantaviruses have been identified, not all cause disease in humans.

 

Like the majority of emerging infectious diseases, Hantavirus is a zoonotic disease; one that can be transmitted between (or are shared by) animals and humans.  

 

The clinical symptoms of Hantavirus were first recognized by western medicine back in the early 1950s during the Korean war, when 3,000 UN troops stationed there were infected with a mysterious viral illness. 

 

The mortality rate was 10%-15%, with patients experiencing fever, hypotension, renal failure, and internal bleeding (disseminated intravascular coagulation).

 

Originally called Korean Hemorrhagic Fever, this condition is now known as Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). Although it was suspected that rodents were the main epidemiological vector, the pathogen responsible wasn’t isolated until the 1970s.

 

Scientists have since identified dozens of viruses within the genus Hantavirus (named after the Hantaan River of Korea) from all around the world. 

 

In Europe and Asia the hantavirus commonly presents as HFRS, and the mortality rate varies from 1% to 15% depending upon the specific hantavirus involved.  China reports the highest incidence of HFRS with between 20,000 – 100,000 cases each year.

 

In the Americas, while infection is far less common, Hantavirus usually presents as Hantavirus Cardio-Pulmonary Syndrome (HCPS or sometimes just HPS), a more severe disease with a fatality rate of between 30% and 50%.

HCPS is marked by respiratory distress (ARDS) and cardiovascular collapse.

 

In the United States, only about 500 cases of HCPS have been identified (across 33 states, but most occurring in the Southwest). Exposure to mice or rodents, and their droppings, has been established as the primary vector for this virus. 

 

So, to sum up, Hantaviruses in Europe and Asia present with a Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, while in the Americas it is less common and generally (but not always)presents as a severe respiratory distress with cardiovascular shock.

 

This week, Eurosurveillance has a report on a steep rise in Hantavirus infections in Germany during the month of April.  

 

The good news here is that the Hantavirus being reported here is the Puumala virus, which generally has the mildest symptoms and lowest mortality of the hantaviruses known to infect humans.

 

Eurosurveillance, Volume 15, Issue 20, 20 May 2010

Rapid communications

 

Steep rise in notified hantavirus infections in Germany, April 2010

---

Faber MS, Ulrich RG, Frank C, Brockmann SO, Pfaff GM, Jacob J, Krüger DH, Stark K. Steep rise in notified hantavirus infections in Germany, April 2010. Euro Surveill. 2010;15(20):pii=19574.

---

From January to April 2010, 396 hantavirus infections were notified in Germany, a considerable increase compared with previous years (mean: 83 for January–April 2004–2009) including the record-setting year, 2007 (n=232 January–April).

Most patients are residents of known Puumala virus endemic areas in southern Germany. The recent increase in notified hantavirus infections is probably due to an increased population density of the main animal reservoir, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus).

(Continue . . . )

 

The chart below shows the yearly variability of reported Hantavirus infections in Germany, with 2007 having been a particularly active year.  

 

Outbreaks of Puumala virus tend to spike every 3 or 4 years and farm workers, who are most likely to come in contact with the dust from Bank Vole droppings, are the most common victims.

 

 

 

The `New World’ versions of Hantavirus, including some that are found in South America, produces more severe disease. The CDC recently posted a short audio podcast on this rare, but often fatal, infection.

 

 

 

Of Mice and Man (A Cup of Health with CDC)

Listen To This Podcast (4:38)

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome, or HPS, is a disease that is caused by people coming in contact with rodents. HPS is caught when dirt or dust containing rodent excretion or other bodily fluids is stirred up and breathed in or absorbed through broken skin. The result is a serious condition in which one of three reported cases has been fatal. In this podcast, Dr. Barbara Knust discusses HPS.  Created: 1/14/2010 by MMWR.   Date Released: 1/14/2010.

 

 

Last December the MMWR published this account of 5 rare pediatric cases of HPS from four states during 2009.

 

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in Five Pediatric Patients — Four States, 2009

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a reportable infectious disease with a high case-fatality rate, transmitted to humans by exposure to rodents.

 

Each year, 20–40 cases of HPS occur in the United States; cases in persons aged <17 years make up fewer than 7% of those cases, and cases in children aged <10 years are exceptionally rare.

CDC received reports of five pediatric cases of HPS occurring during May 16–November 25, 2009, among children aged 6–14 years from Arizona, California, Colorado, and Washington. Three of the children were aged <10 years, and all five had exposure to rodents.

(Continue . . . )

 

 

The Special Pathogens Branch of the CDC has some information to help you prevent exposure and infection from hantaviruses on their  Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome: What You Need To Know webpage.

 

The following is just an excerpt, follow the link to read the entire guide.

 

 

RESERVOIR

The deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) is the primary reservoir of the hantavirus that causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the United States.

 

TRANSMISSION

Infected rodents shed the virus through urine, droppings, and saliva. HPS is transmitted to humans through a process called aerosolization. Aerosolization occurs when dried materials contaminated by rodent excreta or saliva are disturbed. Humans become infected by breathing in these infectious aerosols.

 

HPS in the United States cannot be transmitted from one person to another.

 

HPS in the United States is not known to be transmitted by farm animals, dogs, or cats or from rodents purchased from a pet store.

 

RISK

Anything that puts you in contact with fresh rodent urine, droppings, saliva or nesting materials can place you at risk for infection.

 

VIRUS

Hantaviruses have been shown to be viable in the environment for 2 to 3 days at normal room temperature. The ultraviolet rays in sunlight kill hantaviruses.

 

PREVENTION

Rodent control in and around the home remains the primary strategy for preventing hantavirus infection.

 

CLEANING

Use a bleach solution or household disinfectant to effectively deactivate hantaviruses when cleaning rodent infestations.

 

 

 

I’ve a keen personal interest in the Hantavirus because my ex-wife’s cousin (Ron Voorhees) was one of the original investigators in the famous 4 corner’s outbreak of Hantavirus in 1993 when he worked as an epidemiologist for the state of New Mexico. 

 

It was during this outbreak that the  New World `Sin Nombre’ (Spanish for `No Name’) Hantavirus was identified, and found to be widely prevalent in its natural host, the deer mouse.

 

If you would like to learn more about the history of that outbreak, and the epidemiological work done to identify the pathogen, I can direct you to an excellent account at:

 

Tracking a Mystery Disease:
The Detailed Story of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome

(Sat, 22 May 2010 17:12:00 +0000)

 

 

# 4588

 

Over the past five years we’ve heard a number of optimistic assessments of global pandemic vaccine production and delivery by the WHO (World Health Organization).

 

Numbers that, quite frankly, have always been based on a `best case scenario’.  

 

Since it would be unseemly for me to list all of my blogs over the years that questioned some of these fanciful projections, I’ll take the high road here and refer you to Maryn McKenna’s terrific award winning 7-part series entitled the Pandemic Vaccine Puzzle which she wrote for CIDRAP way back in 2007.

 

A series that remains just as relevant today as when she wrote it.

 

Part 1: Flu research: a legacy of neglect
Part 2: Vaccine production capacity falls far short
Part 3: H5N1 poses major immunologic challenges
Part 4: The promise and problems of adjuvants
Part 5: What role for prepandemic vaccination?
Part 6: Looking to novel vaccine technologies
Part 7: Time for a vaccine ‘Manhattan Project’?
Bibliography

 

 

Last night, Robert Roos, News Editor for CIDRAP wrote a piece on a WHO review of vaccine production during this past year’s pandemic.  It’s a very good read, so follow the link.

 

 

WHO: Pandemic showed limits of vaccine production capacity

 

Robert Roos News Editor

May 21, 2010 (CIDRAP News) – Global production of the H1N1 influenza vaccine has made clear that the world still has a long way to go to meet pandemic production capacity goals set by the World Health Organization (WHO) 4 years ago, WHO experts said in a report released this week.

In 2006 the WHO set a goal of having enough vaccine for 2 billion people within 6 months after a pandemic vaccine strain is supplied to industry. By Dec 1, 2009, which marked the 6-month milestone for the H1N1 pandemic, global production reached just 534 million doses, according to the “in press” report published online May 18 by Vaccine.

 

The report, based on a survey of all flu vaccine manufacturers, says further, “The forecasted production of pandemic vaccine 12 months after the availability of the vaccine virus (i.e., June 2010) is approximately 1.37 billion doses, which is only 28% of the annual global production capacity of 4.9 billion doses estimated from the WHO survey conducted n May 2009.” It was authored by Jeffrey Partridge and Marie Paule Kieny of the WHO H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Task Force.

 

(Continue . . . )

 

 

Of course, production capacity isn’t enough. 

 

You have to have the global public health infrastructure in place to deliver the vaccine to the arms of the public, once it is created.  And money for that is in distressingly short supply.

As pandemics go, we were very lucky this time.  Novel H1N1 wasn’t as virulent as some feared.  Next time, we may not be so lucky.

 

Hopefully we’ve got time to improve the system, to make the technological advances, and to make the right investments. 

 

But we are working against a time clock we can’t see. 

 

If and when a severe pandemic does come, it is better to be ready years too soon rather than six months too late.