Influenza Virus Mashup

(Wed, 26 May 2010 11:06:00 +0000)

# 4596

For a time yesterday, it looked like BP would shut down the live video feed from a mile deep in the Gulf of Mexico of the attempt to cap the blown out Deepwater Horizon rig.  

Last night, reportedly under pressure from the government, BP agreed to leave the feeds in place.

In the event you already don’t know how to access these live video streams, I’ve a few urls for you.   Demand is likely to be heavy during this attempt to shut down the well (which may take 48 hours), so having a `plan B’ site to watch it on is probably a good idea.

CBS News, broadcasting on USTREAM, has a very good feed.

TheState.com has  a live video feed on this page.

CNN has streaming video along with other oil spill related video reports here.

And BP has their own video feed  here.

Obviously the stakes here are very high.  BP only gives a 60%-70% chance of success.    

For more information on the Deepwater Horizon response you may wish to visit the official site of the Deepwater Horizon Response Unified Command.

For other resources, visit Florida Deepwater Horizon FAQ & Resources

Via Ma’an News Agency: Tulkarem demands apology over bird flu scare
.

Tulkarem’s deputy mayor called on President Mahmoud Abbas to secure an apology from the Ministries of Health and Agriculture to poultry farmers in the Bal’a village for the recent avian flu outbreak scare. 

Hasan Khreisheh told Ma’an that poultry farmers required full compensation after the village was quarantined for eight days following rumors of a bird flu outbreak, which saw 750,000 chickens slaughtered as a result. 

The deputy mayor added that at least 50 percent of village residents are employed in the poultry farming industry. 

Farmers told Khreisheh of their loses, which began on 29 April, when officials from both ministries, accompanied by police, surrounded the village, asking farmers to sign a pledge vowing they would not sell their birds and slaughter 90 percent of their poultry. 

The village, which exports between 4-5,000 cartons of eggs per day to areas in the West Bank, and hundreds of pounds of meat, saw its poultry stock wiped out following the discovery of bird flu by PA officials from the Ministry of Agriculture. 

However, on Thursday, the Tulkarem governorate was deemed clear of avian flu, after the Agriculture Ministry received results from Israeli medical laboratories.

(Tue, 25 May 2010 18:19:00 +0000)

# 4595

One of the great mysteries about influenza pandemics is why illness seems to come in waves, sometimes separated by months with little or no flu activity. 

The 1918 pandemic appeared in many regions as three separate waves.  A milder wave during the spring and summer of 1918, followed by an intense and very deadly wave in the fall, and  a return of the following spring. 

The progression of the Spanish Flu in the UK, in 1918-1919.

Again in 1957, and in 1968, we saw pandemic influenza come in repeated waves, but the exact reason why the virus should flare, infect some – but not all – then recede for months only to return,  has never been adequately explained.

Today from BMC Infectious Diseases we get this open access research articles where the authors postulate that pre-existing immunity from exposure to previous influenza’s may have been partially protective to selected (largely urban) populations during the 1918 pandemic, which may help explain the wave phenomenon.

Here is the abstract, and this link will take you to the provisional PDF. 

Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9

John D Mathews , Emma S McBryde , Jodie McVernon , Paul K Pallaghy  and James M McCaw

BMC Infectious Diseases 2010, 10:128doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-128

Published:
25 May 2010

Abstract (provisional)

Background

The ecology of influenza may be more complex than is usually assumed. For example, despite multiple waves in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19, many people in urban locations were apparently unaffected. Were they unexposed, or protected by pre-existing cross-immunity in the first wave, by acquired immunity in later waves, or were their infections asymptomatic?

Methods

We modelled all these possibilities to estimate parameters to best explain patterns of repeat attacks in 24,706 individuals potentially exposed to summer, autumn and winter waves in 12 English populations during the 1918-9 pandemic.

Results

Before the summer wave, we estimated that only 52% of persons (95% credibility estimates 41-66%) were susceptible, with the remainder protected by prior immunity. Most people were exposed, as virus transmissibility was high with R0 credibility estimates of 3.10-6.74. Because of prior immunity, estimates of effective R at the start of the summer wave were lower at 1.57-3.96. Only 25-66% of exposed and susceptible persons reported symptoms. After each wave, 33-65% of protected persons became susceptible again before the next wave through waning immunity or antigenic drift. Estimated rates of prior immunity were less in younger populations (19-59%) than in adult populations (38-66%), and tended to lapse more frequently in the young (49-92%) than in adults (34-76%).

Conclusions

Our model for pandemic influenza in 1918-9 suggests that pre-existing immune protection, presumably induced by prior exposure to seasonal influenza, may have limited the pandemic attack-rate in urban populations, while the waning of that protection likely contributed to recurrence of pandemic waves in exposed cities. In contrast, in isolated populations, pandemic attack rates in 1918-9 were much higher than in cities, presumably because prior immunity was less in populations with infrequent prior exposure to seasonal influenza.

 

Although these conclusions cannot be verified by direct measurements of historical immune mechanisms, our modelling inferences from 1918-9 suggest that the spread of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic has also been limited by immunity from prior exposure to seasonal influenza. Components of that immunity, which are measurable, may be short-lived, and not necessarily correlated with levels of HI antibody.

Via La República: Vacunas contra la gripe llegaron a Uruguay.[Flu vaccines arrived in Uruguay] Excerpt, with my translation:

Una partida de vacunas contra tres cepas de gripe fue recibida ayer para continuar inmunizando a la población. Se prevé que las dosis sean aplicadas a mayores de 50 años y a personas que estén dentro de grupos de riesgo que aún no hayan sido inoculadas. Ya se vacunaron 283 mil uruguayos y se podría llegar al medio millón. 

A shipment of vaccines against three strains of flu was received yesterday to continue immunizing the population. The doses will be given to persons over 50 and those in risk groups who have not yet been vaccinated. So far 238,000 Uruguayans have been vaccinated and the number could reach half a million.

Arribó ayer la partida de 107 mil vacunas trivalentes proveniente de Francia.

The shipment of trivalent vaccines arrived yesterday from France.

(Tue, 25 May 2010 11:24:00 +0000)

# 4594

Not much left to these apartments after Andrew hit Homestead in ‘92.

Today is day three of Hurricane Preparedness week, with today’s emphasis on High winds associated with these tropical systems. 

While storm surge is the greatest concern to those living in low-lying coastal areas, hurricane force winds can extend a hundred miles or more inland during a landfalling hurricane. Often hurricanes spin off tornadoes when they come ashore as well.

Hurricanes are measured by the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which bases their strength on sustained wind speeds.   Anything CAT 3 or higher is considered a major hurricane.

Even a CATEGORY 1 storm can spin up tornadoes, or produce wind gusts substantially stronger than their sustained wind speeds.  Older Mobile homes, RVs, and even some conventionally built structures may not withstand a CAT 1 storm. 

And while great strides have been made over the past few decades in forecasting the path (out to about 48-72 hrs) of hurricanes, meteorologists are far less able to predict intensity changes of these storms. 

Just before landfall in 2004, Hurricane Charlie unexpectedly changed direction and ramped up from a moderate CAT 2 to storm to a major CAT 4 in just three hours, leaving coastal residents no time for evacuations. 

If you live in vulnerable areas, you need to be aware of your evacuation zone, many of which have been recently revised due to a better understanding of storm surge, flooding, and wind damage risks.

Since I live in a vulnerable area, and in a structure that might not withstand a hurricane, I’ll be evacuating to a safer location should a storm threaten.  

The intensity of a landfalling hurricane is expressed in terms of categories that relate wind speeds and potential damage. According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, a Category 1 hurricane has lighter winds compared to storms in higher categories.

A Category 4 hurricane would have winds between 131 and 155 mph and, on the average, would usually be expected to cause 100 times the damage of the Category 1 storm. Depending on circumstances, less intense storms may still be strong enough to produce damage, particularly in areas that have not prepared in advance.

(Continue . . . )

 

RELATED INFORMATION
• HIGH WIND SAFETY ACTIONS
• SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE (updated February 2010)
• HURRICANE WIND DECAY
• HISTORIC HIGH WIND EVENTS
• RISK AREAS

For more information, visit FEMA’s 2010 Hurricane Season website.

 

Hurricane Season 2010

Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2010 will be held May 23rd through May 29th. FEMA is urging residents to be prepared for their personal safety and survival in case a hurricane threatens their community. To assist in these efforts, FEMA, along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is helping to raise awareness of steps that can be taken to help protect citizens, their communities and property.

Be Prepared for 2010

• Hurricane Preparedness from Ready.gov (PDF 27KB, TXT 6KB)
• The Disaster Declaration Process (PDF 278KB, TXT 6KB)
• Hurricane Season and Flooding (PDF 278KB, TXT 4KB)
• Inland Flooding (PDF 30KB, TXT 4KB)
• Preparing for Your Pets (PDF 30KB, TXT 7KB)
• Use of Social Media Tools (PDF 106KB, TXT 12KB)

Additional Resources

• Ready.Gov
• Citizen Corps
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• NOAA Hurricane Preparedness Week
• NOAA’s National Weather Service

Other blogs in this year’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week series include:

Storm Surge Monday

The Crossroads Of The Atlantic Storm Season

You Don’t Have To Live On The Coast

Via The Times of India, a reported datelined Pune: NIV detects three new variants of H1N1 virus. Excerpt:

The National Institute of Virology (NIV) here has detected three new variants of the H1N1 virus. Fortunately, all three variants have shown susceptibility to Tamiflu , the drug used in the treatment of swine flu. 

However, with the virus actively acquiring new properties, NIV scientists are apprehensive that it might develop resistance to the medicines used in treating swine flu. 

“For now, there is no need to worry. But we are closely monitoring the virus for any change in its virulence,” NIV assistant director Sarah Cherian told TOI recently. 

Cherian said seven mutated variants of the virus have been found across the world so far.

“As expected of the seasonal influenza virus, the H1N1 virus is also going through constant genetic variations which might lead to significant changes in its antiviral resistance,” she said. 

The variants of the H1N1 virus, representing both recovered and fatal cases from major cities – Pune, Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad and Bangalore — were analysed at the NIV and the complete genomes of these variants were sequenced. 

The results of the genetic analysis have been published in the March 2010 issue of the US journal, PLOS One.

(Mon, 24 May 2010 22:41:00 +0000)

# 4593

Even before novel H1N1 emerged a little more than a year ago doctors and researchers were aware that novel influenza viruses often impacted pregnant women much harder than non-pregnant women.   

Although the concern at the time was a possible bird flu pandemic (and that concern has not diminished), back in December of 2008 I wrote a long essay on the subject entitled Pregnancy and Pandemic Influenza.

 

Much of what I wrote was based an a terrific study that appeared in the EID Journal in January of 2008 entitled Pandemic influenza and pregnant women by Rasmussen SA, Jamieson DJ, Bresee JS.

On May 1st of 2009, a little more than a week after the first cases of novel H1N1 began to make headlines, the CDC published new guidelines for pregnant women in the Health Care or Education field that might come in direct contact with the Swine flu virus (See CDC Guidelines On Pregnancy And Pandemic Flu).

Two weeks after that the MMWR published case studies of three pregnant women who had contracted novel H1N1. 

Throughout the summer, pregnancy and flu was a major topic by public health officials around the world. On October 1st, I summarized the impact of this new virus on pregnant women in Pregnancy & Flu: A Bad Combination. 

We are now in the process of getting many new studies and research articles based on what was learned over the past year.  Novel H1N1 will undoubtedly turn out to be the most studied influenza virus in human history.

Today, we get an investigation published in the Archives of Internal Medicine into 18 gravid (pregnant) admissions with H1N1, and their resultant complications.   

The authors report that pregnant patients admitted with H1N1 are “at risk for obstetrical complications including fetal distress, premature delivery, emergency cesarean delivery, and fetal death.”

The entire report is available online, and I’ve just reproduced excerpts from the abstract below.

Novel Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Among Gravid Admissions

Andrew C. Miller, MD; Farnaz Safi, MD; Sadia Hussain, BS; Ramanand A. Subramanian, PhD; Elamin M. Elamin, MD, MSc; Richard Sinert, DO

Arch Intern Med. 2010;170(10):868-873.

 
Background Pandemic novel influenza A(H1N1) is a substantial threat and cause of morbidity and mortality in the pregnant population.

 

Methods We conducted an observational analysis of 18 gravid patients with H1N1 in 2 academic medical centers. Cases were identified based on direct antigen testing (DAT) of nasopharyngeal swabs followed by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction analysis (rRT-PCR) or viral culture.

<SNIP>

 

Results Eighteen pregnant patients were admitted with H1N1 during the study period. All patients were treated with oseltamivir phosphate beginning on the day of admission. Mean (SD) age was 27 (6.6) years (age range, 18-40 years); median length of hospital stay was 4 days.

 
Intensive care unit admission rate was 17% (n = 3).

<SNIP>

Seven patients delivered during hospitalization (39%), 6 prematurely and 4 via emergency cesarean delivery. There were 2 fetal deaths (11%). No maternal mortality was recorded.

 

Conclusions Admitted pregnant patients with H1N1 are at risk for obstetrical complications including fetal distress, premature delivery, emergency cesarean delivery, and fetal death. A high number of patients presented with gastrointestinal and abdominal complaints. Early antiviral treatment may improve maternal outcomes.

Via Yonhap News: S. Korea to share bird flu quarantine knowhow with ASEAN countries. Excerpt:

South Korea will share its knowhow on bird flu quarantine with Southeast Asian countries as part of its effort to help contain future outbreaks of the disease, the government said Monday.    

The National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Service said 30 quarantine experts from eight Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries have been invited to the country next week.    

The training program, which begins next Monday and runs through June 15, was arranged in cooperation with the Korea International Cooperation Agency — an organization that offers free programs for developing countries.    

Outbreaks of bird flu have posed a health problem for many parts of Asia with many deaths attributed to the potentially fatal disease, which can be passed from birds to humans.    

In addition, the agency will also give lectures on various animal test kits and drugs manufactured in South Korea.

(Mon, 24 May 2010 13:38:00 +0000)

# 4592

Today is day two of Hurricane Preparedness week, with today’s emphasis on deadly storm surge. 

I suppose I could tell you of my encounters with modest 6-8 foot storm surges, or warn you that depending on wind strengths and the terrain, that a storm surge can travel several miles in from the coast . . . but there is nothing I can say that would have the impact of this 2-minute video hosted on Youtube.

If this video isn’t enough to convince you to evacuate low-lying coastal areas during a hurricane, nothing will.

A fifteen to twenty foot storm surge isn’t uncommon with a Category 3 storm, and when the winds, forward speed of the storm, and topography of the coastline are all favorable . . .  a twenty-five foot surge or more is possible.

For more on the threat of storm surge, visit the National Hurricane Center’ Storm surge page.

“The greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge.”

Storm surge is simply water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. In addition, wind driven waves are superimposed on the storm tide.

 

This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with the normal high tides. Because much of the United States’ densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm tides is tremendous.

 

The level of surge in a particular area is also determined by the slope of the continental shelf. A shallow slope off the coast (right, top picture) will allow a greater surge to inundate coastal communities. Communities with a steeper continental shelf (right, bottom picture) will not see as much surge inundation, although large breaking waves can still present major problems. Storm tides, waves, and currents in confined harbors severely damage ships, marinas, and pleasure boats.

(continue. . .)

Other blogs in this year’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week series include:

 

The Crossroads Of The Atlantic Storm Season

You Don’t Have To Live On The Coast

Via Bikya Masr: Official: Egypt failed in eliminating bird flu. Excerpt:

An international expert said last Thursday that Egypt failed in eliminating the danger of Avian influenza. 

Farid Hosni, the head of the project “Stop bird flu stop AI” of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), said in a speech at a conference organized by the project in collaboration with the General Authority for Veterinary Services, that the bird flu virus “is the more serious and deadly than swine flu, especially in Egypt, where death rates reached 59 percent.” 

He added that Egypt is one of five countries in the world to have a possible pandemic, and it is the only country in Africa where the disease still exists. He pointed to Nigeria as having eliminated the virus completely through its efforts. 

He also noted that the marriage of bird flu and swine flu tests failed in the laboratory thus far, “which means no possibility of the integration of viruses to form a new virus, as scientists have confirmed over the past period.” 

Hosni continued that Nigeria was able to round up and fight against the disease despite their “weak potential, but have followed the policy of compensation, as the government paid each farmer, large and small and even those who bring up birds, and these compensations were larger than the market prices, but Egypt so far failed to eradicate the disease despite the resources it possesses.”