Influenza Virus Mashup

(Thu, 31 Dec 2009 22:09:00 +0000)

# 4207

The CDC has posted FluView for week 51, ending December 26th , 2009. Unlike the past few weeks where we’ve seen declines in most indicators across the board, this week is a mixed bag. 

During the last reporting week certain indicators went up, while others went down or remained the same.

Visits to doctors for ILI increased slightly over last week, while hospitalizations remained the same.

 

P&I (pneumonia & Influenza) deaths increased over the last week and has moved above the epidemic threshold this week, after dropping below last week.

 

There were four pediatric flu-related fatalities added to this year’s count during the past week.

I’ve excerpted some of the data and graphs below, but follow the link to read it in its entirety. 

 

2009-2010 Influenza Season Week 51 ending December 26, 2009

All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.

Synopsis:

During week 51 (December 20-26, 2009), influenza activity decreased slightly in the U.S.

• 154 (3.9%) specimens tested by U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) collaborating laboratories and reported to CDC/Influenza Division were positive for influenza.
• All subtyped influenza A viruses reported to CDC were 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses.
• The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was above the epidemic threshold.
• Four influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported. Two of these deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and two were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was undetermined.
• The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) was 3.2% which is above the national baseline of 2.3%. Two of the 10 regions (1 and 10) reported ILI below region-specific baseline levels.
• Four states reported geographically widespread influenza activity, 13 states reported regional influenza activity, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and 19 states reported local influenza activity, Guam and 13 states reported sporadic influenza activity, and one state reported no influenza activity, the U.S. Virgin Islands did not report.

U.S. Virologic Surveillance:

WHO and NREVSS collaborating laboratories located in all 50 states and Washington D.C., report to CDC the number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive by influenza type and subtype. The results of tests performed during the current week are summarized in the table below.

 

Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance

During week 51, 7.7% of all deaths reported through the 122-Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I. This percentage was above the epidemic threshold of 7.4% for week 51.

Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality

Four influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported to CDC during week 51 (Florida [2], Massachusetts, and Texas). Two of these deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and two were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype is undetermined. The deaths reported during week 51 occurred between August 30 and December 19, 2009.

Outpatient Illness Surveillance:

Nationwide during week 51, 3.2% of patient visits reported through the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet) were due to influenza-like illness (ILI). This percentage is above the national baseline of 2.3%.

Via Kuwait News Agency: Egypt reports four swine flu deaths. Excerpt:

Egypt declared on Thursday death of four patients who had succumbed to the deadly swine flu disease, also widely known as the A/H1N1 virus. 

The Egyptian Health Ministry said in a statement that the death toll of the communicable disease had risen to 133.
It said the latest cases were of three women and one man.

The total number of deaths seems surprising. Just yesterday I posted an item from Egypt News saying the national total was 112.

(Thu, 31 Dec 2009 19:46:00 +0000)

# 4206

. . . in a blog entitled Looking Forward On This First Morning Of The Last Year Of The First Decade Of the 21st Century, I wrote . . .

Looking forward, 2009 may or may not be the year that we see a pandemic.   No one really knows.   All we know is that the conditions appear to remain conducive to seeing one sometime `soon’.

 

`Soon‘ could mean this year, five years from now, or perhaps even further off.   But history tells us that pandemics happen, with frightening regularity.  Roughly every 30 to 40 years.

 

And they generally strike with little warning.

 

We have a choice, of course.

 

We can prepare for something we know is coming, and in doing so also be better prepared to handle less catastrophic events like hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes . . .  or we can pretend that it will never happen to our family, or our business, and go on our merry way with blinders on, hoping that this year isn’t the year our luck runs out.

 

Disasters are going to happen.  We can’t predict, or control, where earthquakes are going to occur, or hurricanes are going to make landfall, or epidemics are going to erupt.

 

All we can do is be ready for them.

 

We aren’t helpless in a pandemic.  But in order to weather one, we need to prepare for it before it happens.

 

Like I say, we have a choice.

 

We just have to be willing to make it.

As luck would have it, we did see the first pandemic in 40 years strike . . .with little warning. 

It came from out of left field, sparked by of all things, an H1N1 virus circulating among swine in our own backyard.  Not from the dreaded bird flu, which continues to threaten in Asia and the Middle East.

There can be little doubt, we got very lucky this time.

Our level of preparation has improved over the past five years, but the experience of 2009 has shown that we are nowhere near ready for a 1918-style pandemic. 

Everything from vaccine production, emergency room and ICU capacities, our public health infrastructure, to personal and community preparedness must be improved.

Had we been struck by a high CFR (Case Fatality Ratio) virus like H5N1, our response would have been woefully inadequate. Millions could have died, and the social and economic costs would have been staggering.

There is absolutely nothing that says we couldn’t see another pandemic virus arise, or a serious mutation to the novel H1N1 virus, in the next few years.  

Nothing at all.

As we slide into 2010, we should indeed be thankful that the novel H1N1 pandemic has not been any worse than it has been. But we’d be absolute fools to ignore the very real possibility that something far worse lies somewhere in our future.

I can’t tell you what global health crisis will next come down the pike. But I can assure you that nature’s laboratory is open 24/7, and it is quite capable of serving up something quite nasty with very little warning.

It’s worth repeating.

We aren’t helpless in a pandemic.  But in order to weather one, we need to prepare for it before it happens.

 

Like I say, we have a choice.

 

We just have to be willing to make it.

Via the Prague Monitor: Incidence of swine flu cases slows down. Excerpt:

The incidence of swine flu in the Czech Republic slowed down this week thanks to several days off during the Christmas holidays, Health Ministry spokesman Vlastimil Srsen told CTK yesterday. 

The National Reference Laboratory has confirmed 57 new cases of infection with the H1N1 virus, brining the total number of infections with swine flu this season to 1264, Srsen said. 

Eight people died from swine flu last week, brining the total number of deaths from the new type of influenza to 56. 

According to Monday’s report by epidemiologists, the incidence of acute respiratory infections and influenza has decreased and no flu epidemics has been registered in any of the 14 Czech regions. 

The improvement was caused by the fact that schoolchildren who are the major carriers of infection, have been on the Christmas holiday since December 23. Many schools closed for the holidays a few days earlier.