Emerging Infectious Diseases is not for the hypochondriac and the faint of heart. But it’s a good resource on influenzas and other illnesses, and the February issue is now available online.
Among this month’s articles: How households in Perth, Australia, responded to school closures early in the pandemic last June; cost-effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies involving pharmaceuticals; Hawaii’s school-based flu vaccination program; and pandemic cases in Buenos Aires.
Via Eurosurveillance: Avian influenza A(H5N1) in humans: Lessons from Egypt. The abstract:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) has ravaged the Egyptian poultry population. Ninety human cases, including 27 fatalities have been recorded by 30 December, 2009. However, epidemiological information on the infection in humans in Egypt is scarce.
We analysed the first three years of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) in Egypt between 20 March 2006 and 31 August 2009 and found that more cases occurred in females than males, especially in 2006 and 2007. Women in the age group 20-39 years had the greatest tendency to be infected.
It took an average of one day and 18 hours to seek medical assistance in patients who recovered and of six days in fatal cases. Children sought treatment much earlier than adults. On average, patients died 11 days after the onset of symptoms.
Exposure to infected poultry remained the most important risk factor.
The entire article is very much worth reading, especially the discussion.
Recombinomics Commentary 13:29
January 29, 2010
JCVI released 50 full sequences at Genbank and almost all were from California. Included was one sample with D225A, A/California/VRDL31/2009, (as mixture with wild type) as well as two D225G and 8 D225E. These sequences were from isolates collected over the summer and early fall. The two isolates with D225G are distinct from each other and the many recent examples from Ukraine and Russia, representing two additional independent introductions.
A/California/VRDL27/2009 has four recently acquire polymorphisms, including A716G, which codes for D225G. The other three polymorphisms are in a California isolate, A/California/VDLR20/2009 and a Texas isolate, A/Texas/45101424/2009.
The first polymorphism, C437T, is in several other pandemic H1N1 sequences and many swine (see list here). Another polymorphism, A1280A is widespread and in Ukraine, Russia, and Norway isolates with D225G (see list here). The third polymorphism, G1360A is only in the three pandemic H1N1 sequences (see list here), which are the ones listed above. The Texas isolate only has the three polymorphisms listed above, so the California isolate is the Texas sequence plus D225G, representing an independent acquisition. Like most of the polymorphism, the other California sequence is the Texas sequences plus two other polymorphisms that are share with additional sets of pandemic isolates.
continued
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01291001/D225G_CA.html
Botswana
• Cattle egrets pose threat in Serowe (Link)
China
• Miscarriages, H1N1 shots ‘not linked’ (Link)
Egypt
• 3 new H1N1 deaths: total now 256 (translated) (Link)
India
• Four die of swine flu in Gujarat, toll rises to 229 (Link)
Indonesia
• Two Children Are Bird Flu Suspects (translated) (Link)
• Bird Flu Kills Thousands Of Chickens In East Lampung (Link)
• 2 suspect H5N1 patients (translated) (Link)
Romania
• Romania Registers 119 Deaths, AH1N1 Infections Near 7,000 (Link)
Singapore
• 1m doses of bird flu vaccine (Link)
United Kingdom
• Inquiry in Widnes as children given adult swine flu jab (Link)
United States
• Rise Seen in Deaths From Pneumonia and Flu (Link)
• LA: 2 more die of swine flu in Louisiana (Link)
Vietnam
• Avian influenza outbreak continues in many [several] provinces (Link)
• Bird flu spreads to southern Vietnam (Link)
• H5N1 in birds in Soc Trang province (Link)
General
• MMWR – H1N1 and nursing homes (Link)
Research
• Some on antiviral therapy still test positive (Link)
Commentary
• Recombinomics: H1N1 D225E Converted to D225G in Japan (Link)
Via News.Az: All 35 participants of the UN seminar in Georgia caught swine flu.
All the 35 participants of seminar held under the UN aegis in Tskhneti settlement near Tbilisi were registered swine flu symptoms, the VZGLAYD reports citing to Imedi.
All the infected were delivered to hospitals of Tbilisi with fever.
One remains in a clinic, all the rest are being treated at home.
Swine flu has already claimed 26 lives in Georgia. According to the data of epidemiologists, 1251 case has been confirmed in laboratories.
Epidemiologists say the first wave is left behind, as the morbidity rate dropped to minimal, but the second, relatively weaker wave is expected in the second half of February.
I still can’t get over the fact that Indonesia’s English-language media are reporting bird flu again. Via The Jakarta Post: Residents worry as chickens die en masse. Excerpt from a long and detailed report:
Residents in South Lampung are panicking following the sudden deaths of thousands of chickens owned by poultry company PT Central Avian Pertiwi, despite the birds having been previously cleared of avian flu.
However, after samples were re-tested at the Lampung Livestock and Animal Husbandry Agency lab, they were tested positive for H5N1.
The egg-laying hens, totaling more than 12,000, have currently been culled and tens of thousands of others have been isolated.
“Residents are afraid they will be infected by the bird flu virus. The poultry company has taken several measures, such as isolating the healthy chickens, destroying the sick and those showing signs of being infected,” said South Lampung Livestock Agency head Ahmad Khandrie on Friday.
The poultry farm is now under the supervision of the Tanjungkarang Veterinary Agency, Lampung Husbandry Office and South Lampung Livestock Agency.
A resident in Merakbelantung village, Kalianda, South Lampung, Sobirin, 38, whose house is near the poultry farm, said the chickens had died suddenly over the past four days.
“Thousands of chickens are dying daily. We are obviously worried, especially after being informed that the chickens died after being infected by the bird flu virus,” he said.
“The smell from the burning dead chickens has also disturbed residents. Some were forced to stay at their relatives in Bandarlampung out of fear.”
An excellent op-ed piece in the Guardian by Mark Honigsbaum: Swine flu could have been a disaster. Excerpt:
Writing in this paper last week, Tom Sheldon eloquently makes the point that predicting pandemics is a species of risk analysis and thus, by definition, subject to error. With better virological and epidemiological data perhaps the government wouldn’t have stockpiled so much Tamiflu or ordered 90m doses of vaccine. But if it hadn’t and armageddon had occurred, Jenkins would have been the first to call for the guillotining of the Chief Medical Officer.
I do not wish to labour the point but it seems to me that the backlash against swine flu is a species of conspiracy-thinking, one that wilfully misconstrues the role of science in the regulation of technologies of health which have brought so many benefits to society.
In the same way that 9/11 denialists point to the collapse of World Trade Centre 7 to support their wacko theories about “controlled demolitions”, swine flu denialists point to Donald Rumsfeld’s position on the board of Gilead, the company that developed Tamiflu, to argue that the “panic” was got up by similar shadowy neo-conservative corporate interests. It is then a short step to seeing all such panics as conspiracies.
Thus, according to the Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, the vaccine is really a tool for culling inner-city black populations because of military leaders’ concerns about pressures on the global food supply.
Similar conspiracy-thinking infects health advice websites that advise mothers not to give their children the swine flu jab because of the risk of rare side-effects, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome. In fact, according to the Institute of Medicine, the chances of contracting GBS from influenza vaccination is one or two per million. By comparison, a recent French study found that the risk of contracting GBS from naturally occurring influenza is four to seven out of every 100,000 cases.
But that hasn’t stopped NHS staff, who should know better, from shunning the swine flu vaccine. Nor, I am sorry to say, are such peer-reviewed studies likely to persuade the sort of people who continue to refuse to give their children the MMR vaccine because they once read somewhere that it might be linked to autism.
Via the Indian government’s Press Information Bureau: Consolidated status of influenza A H1N1 as on 30th January 2010. It shows a total of 28,775 cases and 1,221 deaths.
(Sat, 30 Jan 2010 13:30:00 +0000)
# 4307
In recent days we’ve been watching a spike in media reports out of Indonesia on their bird flu situation, something which is typical for this time of the year. These reports include suspected human cases, as well as infected poultry.
Reports Out Of Indonesia Continue
Indonesia: A Tale Of Two Cities
Suspected Bird Flu Fatality In Indonesia
The Indonesian Beat Goes On
Today the Jakarta Post has a report out of South Lampung, on the southern tip of Sumatra, concerning the sudden deaths of thousands of chickens at a large poultry operation.
While the Indonesian government rarely releases information regarding their bird flu problem, based on the media reports we keep seeing, the problem has not diminished.
Residents worry as chickens die en masse
Oyos Saroso H.N. , The Jakarta Post , South Lampung | Sat, 01/30/2010 12:53 PM | The Archipelago
Residents in South Lampung are panicking following the sudden deaths of thousands of chickens owned by poultry company PT Central Avian Pertiwi, despite the birds having been previously cleared of avian flu.
However, after samples were re-tested at the Lampung Livestock and Animal Husbandry Agency lab, they were tested positive for H5N1.
The egg-laying hens, totaling more than 12,000, have currently been culled and tens of thousands of others have been isolated.
“Residents are afraid they will be infected by the bird flu virus. The poultry company has taken several measures, such as isolating the healthy chickens, destroying the sick and those showing signs of being infected,” said South Lampung Livestock Agency head Ahmad Khandrie on Friday.
The poultry farm is now under the supervision of the Tanjungkarang Veterinary Agency, Lampung Husbandry Office and South Lampung Livestock Agency.
A resident in Merakbelantung village, Kalianda, South Lampung, Sobirin, 38, whose house is near the poultry farm, said the chickens had died suddenly over the past four days.
“Thousands of chickens are dying daily. We are obviously worried, especially after being informed that the chickens died after being infected by the bird flu virus,” he said.
“The smell from the burning dead chickens has also disturbed residents. Some were forced to stay at their relatives in Bandarlampung out of fear.”
A virologist at the veterinary agency, Sri Marfiatiningsih, said besides being infected by H5N1, another factor in the chickens’ mass deaths in Lampung was the changing weather. She said abrupt deaths of chickens mostly occurred between January to February, with a likely decline in March.
(Sat, 30 Jan 2010 04:48:54 GMT)
Reminder: Please do not post whole articles, just snippets and links. Thanks!!
Australia
? Professor slams downplay of swine flu (Link)
Egypt
? Pig-cull increasingly viewed as gross mistake (Link)
India
? 4 city hospitals get notice for not reporting swine flu cases (Link)
? Bird flu alert in Balasore (Link)
? H1N1 The story of a vaccine (Link)
Indonesia
? South Lampung residents worry as chickens die en masse (Link)
? West Java: Bird Flu Positive, Hundreds Dead in Sukabumi Chicken sudden (Link)
Marshall Islands
? Public health emergency declared (Link)
United States
? KS: Third wave of H1N1 flu likely approaching (Link)
? TX: Pneumonia outbreak - unknown cause (Link)
Vietnam
? Acute diarrhoea reported in An Giang and suspected H5N1 cases in humans in Ha Tinh (Link)
? One more A/H1N1 fatality confirmed in Quang Ninh (Link)
General
? Swine flu: Global death toll rises to 14,711, says WHO (Link)
? Study identifies key demographic and psychological factors that predict protective behaviour during pandemics (Link)
Commentary
? Recombinomics: Spike In US Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths (Link)
? H (Link)
News for January 29, 2010 is here.
US Influenza-Like Illness Reports
Week ending Jan. 23, 2010
Influenza-Like Illness Reports for England & Wales
Week ending Dec 20, 2009
Thanks to all of the newshounds! Special thanks to the newshound volunteers who translate international stories - thanks for keeping us all informed!
Other useful links:
CDC A(H1N1) Site
WHO A(H1N1) Site
WHO H5N1 human case totals, last updated January 28, 2010
Charts and Graphs on H5N1 from WHO
Google Flu Trends (U.S.)
CDC Weekly Influenza Summary
Map of seasonal influenza in the U.S.
CIDPC (Canada) Weekly FluWatch
European CDC Influenza News
UK RCGP Weekly Data on Communicable and Respiratory Diseases
Flu Wiki Main Page
Via the Vancouver Sun: H1N1 flu shot may not be easy to get in B.C. Excerpt:
On Thursday the Provincial Medical Health Officer Dr. Perry Kendall advised the 60 per cent of British Columbians who have not yet been vaccinated against the H1N1 flu strain to go and get their shot.
Roger Swetnam took him at his word and contacted his family doctor who said he didn’t want to crack open a 10-shot vial of vaccine just to administer one shot and have the rest go to waste.
An opened vial of vaccine has a shelf life of 24 hours.
“I was told I’d need 10 people,” said Swetnam who wants the shot before travelling to Australia in a couple of weeks.
Swetnam called two clinics and received the same message. He has since found a walk-in clinic which said they will give him the vaccine today.
“I didn’t think I’d have this much trouble getting vaccinated. I think the public health people should make it easier for people to get vaccinated,” he said.
His wife Maria wasn’t impressed. “I don’t think the Australians would appreciate it if we brought H1N1 with us when we seem to have an excess of vaccine in B.C, ” she said.
Kendall said he sympathized with Swetnam but could understand why a physician wouldn’t want to let a vial of vaccine worth $80 worth go to waste.
He expects clinics dispensing the vaccine to organize a registry so that when people call they would be put on a list and given a time when the vaccine would be administered.