Influenza Virus Mashup

Influenza Virus Mashup

Archive for January, 2010

Recombinomics Commentary 20:09
January 29, 2010

The CDC Week 3 influenza report has been released and once again there were no reported cases of seasonal influenza A. 2 cases of influenza B were reported and the vast majority of cases (98%) were pandemic H1N1, indicating seasonal influenza A has been crowded out in the US. The frequency of influenza detection has risen slightly and is at the highest level since week 50, signaling the end of the fall wave and the beginning of a winter wave. However, although the detection rate rose slightly, the P&I deaths spiked higher and are now well above the epidemic threshold and as high as it has been since the peak of the 2008/2009 season.

This dramatic jump in deaths raises concerns that the current H1N1 is more virulent and lethal than the H1N1 circulating in the fall. The early appearance of that virus dramatically increased the P&I, which then declined as the H1N1 levels declined. However, the current jump is well ahead of such a corresponding jump in H1N1, which would support a more lethal H1N1.

Recent reports from Tennessee have described a higher frequency of children with H1N1 entering the ICU as well as a higher percentage dying. These results are early, but mimic the increase in case fatality rate in eastern Ukraine in association with the release of sequences from Oct/Nov which had a strong association of D225G/N with fatal cases, who had significant lung damage.

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http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01291003/Week3_PI.html

Australia
• Professor slams downplay of swine flu (Link)

Egypt
• Pig-cull increasingly viewed as gross mistake (Link)

India
• 4 city hospitals get notice for not reporting swine flu cases (Link)
Bird flu alert in Balasore (Link)
• H1N1 The story of a vaccine (Link)

Indonesia
• South Lampung residents worry as chickens die en masse (Link)
• West Java: Bird Flu Positive, Hundreds Dead in Sukabumi Chicken sudden (Link)

Marshall Islands
• Public health emergency declared (Link)

United States
• KS: Third wave of H1N1 flu likely approaching (Link)
• TX: Pneumonia outbreak – unknown cause (Link)

Vietnam
• Acute diarrhoea reported in An Giang and suspected H5N1 cases in humans in Ha Tinh (Link)
• One more A/H1N1 fatality confirmed in Quang Ninh (Link)

General
• Swine flu: Global death toll rises to 14,711, says WHO (Link)
• Study identifies key demographic and psychological factors that predict protective behaviour during pandemics (Link)

[Crof's H5N1] H1N1: Coming back in the US?

Posted by Automator On January - 31 - 2010

Via Mystery Rays from Outer Space, a blog I’m adding to the H5N1/H1N1 Bloggers list: H1N1: I’m just saying. Excerpt:

OK, last time I thought H1N1 influenza was coming back (just after Christmas) it turned out to be just a blip.  But I notice that according to Google Flu Trends, 30 states are showing increases in flu activity this week, compared to last week. Mostly very small increases,(1) but 10 of the states have shown a sustained increase (at least two weeks of increasing numbers). Over the past two weeks, Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana, Oregon, and Utah have each shown a 10-20% increase in flu activity. 

This is pretty much the time that flu season normally begins, but there’s been very little evidence of the normal seasonal flu strains circulating this year, so odds are these cases are almost all H1N1 swine-origin influenza virus.

[Crof's H5N1] Indonesia: Another human H5N1 death

Posted by Automator On January - 31 - 2010

Via Ida at Bird Flu Information Corner, a report from Pos KotaSouth Jakarta ::: Official conducts operation of healthy chicken transport. But the real story is in the last paragraphs.

Livestock and Fishery Sub-service of South Jakarta stopped about 17 from 26 units of truck to transport chicken meat from outside Jakarta. Those chicken meat trucks could not show animal health certificate. 

This action, Healthy Chicken Transport Operation (Operasi Transportasi Ayam Sehat/OTAS), was carried out at Jl. Raya Kebayoran Lama and Jl. Ciledug Raya, Kebayoran Lama, in particular to trucks carrying chicken carcass to be delivered to traditional markets, said official of Livestock and Fishery Service, South Jakarta, Chaidir Taufik. 

Total bird carcasses loaded in those 26 units of trucks were about 19,180 chickens and 800 ducks, which were coming from Subang, Bogor, Serpong and Sukabumi. 

OTAS action was done to anticipate bird flu outbreak in Jakarta, in particular South Jakarta. Chaidir also mentioned, 

OTAS action was done regarding to the death of bird flu suspect patient, Nurlalila, a resident of Jl. Pengadegan Barat V, on 26 January 2010 in Pasar Rebo hospital. 

Information mentioned that victim brought four chickens from Cibitung Tangerang on the former month. One chicken was slaughtered and then victim developed sickness at the following days. Victim was then treated and tested positive bird flu infection. The remaining three chickens were returned back to Cibitung.

[Crof's H5N1] Serbia: Pandemic not finished

Posted by Automator On January - 31 - 2010

Via B92: Health Minister: Pandemic not finished. Excerpt:

Health Minister Tomica Milosavljević told daily Večernje novosti that the swine flu pandemic has not yet ended. 

He said that the flu season lasts until April in the northern hemisphere. 

“Saying that the pandemic never was or that that is has passed is countering everything that has been done to protect the people,” Milosavljević said, adding that such behavior is “offensive to the victims” of the flu. 

 He said that 81 people have died—five pregnant women, five children, about 15-20 completely healthy people—who were infected with the H1N1 virus. 

“It is true that fatalities from this virus are similar to the ones from the seasonal flu, but the structure of dying is completely different. The seasonal flu never causes rapid pneumonia that leads to death in two days,” Milosavljević said. 

He said that 2.24 percent of the Serbian population has been vaccinated, which is “not a bad result, considering the strong anti-vaccination campaign.”

[Avian Flu Diary] Contrarians At The Gate

Posted by Automator On January - 31 - 2010

(Sun, 31 Jan 2010 15:27:00 +0000)

 

 

# 4309

 

 

Although I am not a scientist, I try to keep this blog centered around what passes for our currently accepted understanding of medicine, scientific research, and emerging infectious diseases.   

 

Not that science is always right.  It isn’t.

 

Our knowledge base – and more importantly, our understanding of how things work - is constantly changing.   I would like to be an optimist, and say `constantly expanding’, but things don’t always progress in a linear fashion.

 

There are many areas, of course, where we have no answers.  Or just partial answers.  And many of the things we believe to be true today will eventually be discarded into the `bad idea’ pile of tomorrow.   

 

That’s how science works.  Absolutes are few and far between.  And the process of getting there is often messy.

 

For some, this lack of definitive answers – or immutable truths – renders science useless . . .  or at least highly suspect.  Since it isn’t always perfect, and our understandings are subject to change, they place science into the realm of guesswork or speculation. 

 

They don’t understand that knowledge isn’t a destination . . . it’s a journey.    

 

Historically science has always labored under the burden of public misconception and distrust.   Advances in science usually mean change.  And while change can be good, it isn’t always so. 

 

And for those who prefer (or depend) on the status quo being maintained . . .  well science can be a threat.

 

The popular public perception of scientific research – at least up until the 1940s – was that of the mad scientist.   The Dr. Frankenstein, who meddles with things not meant for man to know – or of the inventor’s of mustard gas or chlorine used during World War I.

 

Gradually, during the 1950s and 1960s (when I grew up), science took on a new, more positive image.  

 

Space flight, jet planes, even computers  .  .  we were entering a world of science-fiction-turned fact. And I suspect that for a lot of us raised during that period, we view science a bit differently than those that came along later. 

 

My heroes growing up were writers like Isaac Asimov (whose numerous non-fiction books tried to explain science to the layman), the Mercury Astronauts, Don Herbert (aka Mr. Wizard) and Dr. Frank Baxter.

 

Okay, I was a geek before it was fashionable.

 

Frank C. Baxter (left) and Eddie Albert from Our Mr. Sun

Frank C. Baxter (left) and Eddie Albert from Our Mr. Sun

 

For those with long memories, Frank Baxter was the `scientist’ host of a series of educational films from the 1950’s created by Bell Laboratories.   If you’ve never seen any of these Bell Science presentations, I have several archived on my other blog.  

 

You can read my tribute to the man in my essay Remembering Dr. Frank Baxter.

 

So I come by this reverence – or at least respect - for science honestly.  I grew up believing that though science we can make the is world a better place.

 

And most days, I still do.

 

But I’m genuinely worried that the proliferation (and apparent popularity) of conspiracy-driven fringe-pseudoscience diminishes those prospects greatly.   

 

The anti-vaccine hysteria of 2009, which obviously turned a lot of people off from the flu shot, is a prime example.  Next time we may be hit by a much more virulent virus, and this sort of anti-vaccine fear mongering could end up costing a lot of lives.

 

My generation, which saw the possibilities of the future, seems to have been followed by a cynical and suspicious Generation X-Files which sees shadowy conspiracies behind every government agency.  

 

Vaccines, they believe, are poisons used to depopulate the planet.  Pandemics aren’t naturally occurring events, they are man-made in a laboratory somewhere.  Our government’s only interest is to enrich big pharma.   And just about everything the government does is a prelude to martial law . . . 

 

My RSS feed aggregator brings me hundreds of news articles, editorials, and blog posts from around the world each day.  And a disturbing (and growing) percentage fall into the categories above.

 

This sort of dreck is apparently very popular, and drives a lot of traffic to these sites.   Let’s face it.  In the Internet business model, traffic equals revenue.  

 

Like the carnival side show, it really doesn’t matter what’s inside the tent.  All that matters is that people are enticed into paying their `one thin dime, 1/10th of a dollar’ to take a peek. 

 

The sad thing here is that there are hundreds of really good journalists and bloggers out there that work diligently to provide good information and analysis, but their efforts are increasingly being overshadowed by these contrarians at the gate.

 

While I sometimes succumb to temptation and attempt to highlight and critique some of the more egregious examples of this internet drivel, most days I try to resist.  

 

The last thing I want is to drive traffic to these sites.  Besides . . . once you start down that path . . . where do you stop?   

 

I’d have time for little else. 

 

So I usually swallow hard and choose to highlight a good journalist, website, or blogger instead  (see Reliable Sources In Flublogia).  

After all, ‘Tis said it is better to light a candle than curse the darkness ‘

 

Sadly, though, it never is as cathartic as a good old fashioned rant.

 

Not even close.

[Crof's H5N1] India: 1,229 deaths

Posted by Automator On January - 31 - 2010

Via NetIndian.in: 8 more H1N1 deaths in India, toll rises to 1229. Excerpt:

Eight more people have died of influenza A (H1N1) in India, taking the toll due to the swine flu pandemic in the country so far to 1229, an official statement said here today. 

Two of these deaths - one each in Maharashtra and Gujarat - were reported during the day. 

Besides, information about six deaths that occurred in recent days - five in Gujarat and one in Maharashtra - was conveyed by the state authorities concerned to the Union Ministry of Health & Family Welfare today, the statement said.

Via Xinhua: China reports smaller proportion of A/H1N1 in all flu cases.

A/H1N1 flu cases in the Chinese mainland last week took up 26.8 percent of all flu cases, down from 39.1 percent the previous week. 

According to a notice released Wednesday on the website of the Ministry of Health, from Jan. 18 to 24, the Chinese mainland reported a total of 1,074 A/H1N1 cases, 255 hospitalized cases and and 21 deaths related due to the A/H1N1 cases. 

The notice said that currently in most parts of the country, A/H1N1 flu virus were still spreading at a community level. 

As the Spring Festival is coming and a huge number of people would travel back home for family reunions, the ministry urged migrant workers and students to take full protection against the virus during their journey.

[Crof's H5N1] "There is no false pandemic"

Posted by Automator On January - 31 - 2010

Via The New York Times, an op-ed by Thomas Abraham, who worked for WHO last spring: There Is No ‘False Pandemic’. Excerpt:

Not for the first time, the World Health Organization is under fire for its handling of the current H1N1 influenza pandemic. Initially, it was criticized for being too slow to alert the world when the disease, often called swine flu, first broke out in Mexico. Now, the organization faces a diametrically opposite charge: that it was influenced by the pharmaceutical industry to create a false pandemic when none existed, so that drug companies could sell more vaccines. 

The W.H.O.’s critics are barking up the wrong tree. This is a real influenza pandemic, not an imaginary disease cooked up by public health agencies around the world and the pharmaceutical industry. Though for the vast majority of people the disease has been mild, it has killed small children, pregnant mothers and otherwise healthy teenagers. 

This is not an innocuous disease. Take a look at the lungs of those whom it as killed: The virus has turned them into a wasteland of devastated tissue, in a way that the normal flu virus never can. 

The world has been fortunate that this virus has not mutated to cause more severe illness in larger numbers of people. This could still happen. 

In China, in less than a month’s time, one of the world’s great annual movements of people will take place as millions travel to their home towns and villages during the Chinese lunar new year holidays. Travel and the movement of people provides opportunities for the virus to spread to new environments and change to a more lethal form in the process. 

The changing flu seasons that see the focus of outbreaks move from the northern to the southern hemisphere, and then back again to the northern hemisphere later in the year, also bring risks of the virus changing to a more severe form. 

The non-debate over whether there is a new type of flu sweeping the world has detracted from a real issue: The world’s poorest countries have yet to receive the vaccine they were promised, while many of the world’s rich countries are wondering what to do with vaccine supplies their citizens do not want. 

Ninety percent of the world’s influenza vaccine production is concentrated in Europe and North America. With production well short of demand, governments in these countries had contracts in place to buy the bulk of the first year’s production. Most poor and middle income countries (with the exception of countries like China, which has built up its vaccine production capacity) would have had to wait for at least a year for their first supplies. 

If this pandemic had rapidly gained lethality and killed several millions of people, the imbalance in the supply of vaccine would have caused a major rift in society between those who had access to vaccines and those who did not. 

While those who lived in the world’s rich countries would have been largely protected, the majority of the world’s population would have borne the brunt of the pandemic, exposing the fault lines that divide the haves from the have nots in today’s globalized world.

[Crof's H5N1] India: Another H1N1 patient dies

Posted by Automator On January - 31 - 2010

Via The Times of India, a story datelined Nagpur: Another H1N1 patient dies. Excerpt:

A 28-year-old woman suffering from swine flu died of acute respiratory distress at Government Medical College and Hospital (GMCH) on Friday midnight taking the H1N1 toll at the hospital to 21. Another five H1N1 deaths have been earlier reported from private hospitals. 

The victim Manisha Ramteke, a resident of Hiwri layout Wathoda, was admitted to the swine flu ward on January 21 and was put on ventilator on January 23 after she tested positive. 

GMCH dean Dr A Niswade, on Saturday, told TOI that 21 H1N1 patients admitted at the hospital had died. However, he did not mention anything about Ramteke’s death. This apparently meant that either he was not aware of her death or did not want to divulge the information to the media. 

The total of 135 patients at GMCH have tested positive while as many as 5922 patients have got themselves screened till date. 

Another three suspected patients were admitted to the isolation ward on Saturday night

[Avian Flu Diary] Haiti: Worries Over Epidemic Risks

Posted by Automator On January - 30 - 2010

(Sat, 30 Jan 2010 20:22:00 +0000)

 

 

# 4208

 

 

Although there is absolutely never a good time for any city to endure a 7.0 earthquake, Port-au-Prince, Haiti had the small bit of luck to see their disaster come during their dry season.  

 

Temperatures and humidity’s are at their lows for the year, and hurricane season is still six months away.

 

 

image

 

The rainy season is coming, however.  And that will only add to the misery – and the potential for disease – in the refugee camps. 

 

Already health care workers are reporting cases of measles, diarrhea, and tetanus in the recovery area.  With sanitation problems, difficulties in getting clean drinking water, and the close quarters people now find themselves living in – the potential for further outbreaks is increasing.

This from the VOA News.

 

 

 

WHO: Risk of Epidemics in Haiti Increasing

World Health Organization says people are at great risk of getting diarrhea, cholera and other water borne diseases because of the bad sanitary conditions and contaminated water.

 

Lisa Schlein | Geneva 30 January 2010

A camp of makeshift tents sprawls at Port-au-Prince's golf course, where many Haitians displaced by the earthquake have set up shelter, 25 Jan 2010

Photo: UN//Marco Dormino

A camp of makeshift tents sprawls at Port-au-Prince’s golf course, where many Haitians displaced by the earthquake have set up shelter, 25 Jan 2010

The World Health Organization says the risk of epidemics breaking out in earthquake-devastated Haiti is increasing as the rainy season approaches.  WHO says it already is receiving reports of a growing number of cases of diarrhea, measles and tetanus.

 

The World Health Organization says it is worried about an explosion of diseases in Haiti.  It says people are at great risk of getting diarrhea, cholera and other water borne diseases because of the bad sanitary conditions and contaminated water.

 

It says contagious diseases such as measles can spread like wildfire in the overcrowded, squalid resettlement camps.

 

WHO spokesman Paul Garwood says U.N. agencies and the Haitian government will conduct a campaign next week to immunize hundreds of thousands of children under age five against measles, tetanus and diphtheria.

 

He says WHO and other aid agencies will be taking additional measures to try to prevent epidemics from breaking out.

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