Influenza Virus Mashup

Influenza Virus Mashup

Archive for November, 2009

[Crof's H5N1] The emotional epidemiology of H1N1 vaccination

Posted by Automator On November - 26 - 2009

Via the New England Journal of Medicine, a brilliant essay by Dr. Danielle Ofri: The Emotional Epidemiology of H1N1 Influenza Vaccination. Excerpt:

Just as there are patterns of infection, there seem to be patterns of emotional reaction (”emotional epidemiology”) associated with new illnesses. 

When 2009 H1N1 influenza was first detected, it fit a classic pattern that Priscilla Wald recently outlined in her book Contagious1: It was novel and mysterious; it emerged from a teeming third-world city, and it was now making its insidious — and seemingly unstoppable — way toward the “civilized” world. 

This is the story line for most headline-grabbing illnesses — HIV, Ebola virus, SARS, typhoid. These diseases capture our imagination and ignite our fears in ways that more prosaic illnesses do not. These dramatic stakes lend themselves quite naturally to thriller books and movies; Dustin Hoffman hasn’t starred in any blockbusters about emphysema or dysentery. 

When the inoculum of dramatic illness is first introduced into society, the public psyche rapidly becomes infected. Almost like an IgE-mediated histamine release, there is an immediate flooding of fear, even if the illness — like Ebola — is infinitely less likely to cause death than, say, a run-in with the Second Avenue bus. 

This immediate fear of the unknown was what had all my patients demanding the as-yet-unproduced H1N1 vaccine last spring. 

As the novel disease establishes itself within society, a certain amount of emotional tolerance is created. H1N1 infection waxed and waned over the summer, and my patients grew less anxious. 

There was, of course, no medical basis for this decreased vigilance. Unusual risk groups and atypical seasonality should, in fact, have raised concern. By late summer, the perceived mysteriousness of H1N1 had receded, and the number of messages on my clinic phone followed suit. 

But emotional epidemiology does not remain static. As autumn rolled around, I sensed a peeved expectation from my patients that this swine flu problem should have been solved already. The fact that it wasn’t “solved,” that the medical profession seemed somehow to be dithering, created an uneasy void. Not knowing whether to succumb to panic or to indifference, patients instead grew suspicious. 

No amount of rational explanation — about the natural variety of influenza strains, about the simple issue of outbreak timing that necessitated a separate H1N1 vaccine — could allay this wariness. 

Similarly, reassuring fellow parents that I was indeed vaccinating my own children did little to ease their apprehension. When the New York City public school system offered free vaccinations for both students and families, there was an abysmally poor turnout. Less than one quarter of the consent forms sent home in kids’ backpacks were returned. 

The dramatic shift in public sentiment over the course of this H1N1 epidemic is both fascinating and frustrating. It is clear that there is a distinct emotional epidemiology and that it bears only a faint connection to the actual disease epidemiology of the virus. 

We cannot combat H1N1 influenza merely by ensuring adequate supplies of vaccine and oseltamivir. Unless the medical profession confronts the emotional epidemiology of H1N1 with a full-court press, we run the risk of an uncontrollable epidemic.

[Crof's H5N1] Russia adds to the confusion

Posted by Automator On November - 26 - 2009

Via RIA Novosti: Russia’s Health Ministry reports 600 flu deaths in 2009. Excerpt:

About 600 people have died in Russia from flu, including the H1N1 virus, since the start of the year, the health minister said on Wednesday. 

“The number of people who have died from different kinds of flu since the start of the year does not exceed 600,” Tatyana Golikova said. 

The minister said the number of flu and respiratory infection cases has exceeded the epidemic threshold in 46 regions across the country. However, in some cities the number of cases has reduced, she said. 

She said 11,633 swine flu cases have been so far registered in Russia. 

The official death toll from swine flu in Russia has reached 16. Media reports earlier said there have been 26 human swine flu deaths registered in the country.

I have no idea what “different kinds of flu” might mean. H1N1 has effectively shoved every other flu strain right out of business, all over the world.

Nor do I understand how to distinguish under 600 flu deaths from 16 or 26 “registered” swine flu deaths.

All I understand is that we can’t trust any flu news the Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians choose to give us. 

[Avian Flu Diary] CIDRAP News on The Rise In Pneumococcal Disease

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

(Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:54:00 +0000)

 

 

# 4081

 

 

Since I was (unfortunately) back in the dentist’s chair this afternoon, I missed today’s CDC press briefing.   

 

 

Luckily, Lisa Schnirring of CIDRAP News was not similarly sidelined, and so we have excellent coverage of the big story out of that  conference  . . . a serious rise reported in pneumococcal disease.

 

This is just an excerpt of a much longer (and very important) story. Follow the link to read it in its entirety.

 

 

CDC warns about rise in serious pneumococcal disease

Lisa Schnirring * Staff Writer

Nov 25, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – In a worrisome but not unexpected pandemic-related development, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today that it is seeing a spike in serious pneumococcal disease, particularly in younger patients.

 

Anne Schuchat, MD, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters at a press briefing that the CDC is seeing an increasing number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases around the country, but the numbers were particularly high in Denver at a time when pandemic H1N1 activity was peaking in the area.

 

Over the past 5 years the Denver area averaged 20 pneumococcal disease cases in October, but this year the area recorded 58, and most were in adults between the ages of 20 and 59, many of whom had underlying medical conditions.

 

Health officials expect to see more pneumococcal disease when seasonal flu circulates, but the infections typically strike people who are older than 65. In past pandemics secondary bacterial pneumonia infections, particularly those involving Streptococcus pneumoniae, frequently contributed to illnesses and deaths.

(Continue . . . )

[Crof's H5N1] Australia’s pandemic winter

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

Via the New England Journal of Medicine, the kind of article we need to make sense of the past year: Australia’s Winter with the 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus. Excerpt:

When the World Health Organization declared a “public health emergency of international concern” on April 25, 2009, after the emergence in Mexico of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus, Australia activated its well-rehearsed plan for response to pandemic influenza. 

The Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza is a strategic outline, based on evidence and international best practices, of actions and interventions that the health care community should consider taking during a pandemic. It describes the planning assumptions, the phases of a response, and the key actions that minimize a pandemic’s effects on the population and the health care community. 

Over the subsequent 6 weeks, the implementation of border-control measures — including requirements that travelers entering Australia declare whether they have symptoms of influenza or have been in contact with someone with severe respiratory illness and that contacts of persons with known influenza be traced — gave the health care community time to learn more about the natural history of the new influenza strain.

[Crof's H5N1] My nominee for the Supari Prize

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

Via Foreign Policy.com: Ukraine’s Phantom Flu. Excerpt:

The global swine flu outbreak has become something of a political football in every country where the pandemic has spread, but Ukraine’s response to the virus has achieved a new level of blatant politicization. 

According to a campaign advisor to Yulia Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian prime minister and presidential candidate purposely inflated fears of an ongoing swine-flu epidemic to aid her presidential run. 

“We had to create a phantom and then have a white knight riding in to save the day,” Taras Berezovets, a senior campaign advisor for Tymoshenko’s BYuT bloc, told me in a Kiev restaurant, confirming widespread suspicions among Ukrainian journalists. 

Since October, Ukraine has been in the grips of a full-blown panic over swine flu, complete with quarantines, school closures, runs on pharmacies. The Ukrainian health system, already badly dilapidated, was caught off guard and almost 400 people died of the flu in just three weeks. 

Tymoshenko flew into action, organizing a delivery of the antiviral drug Tamiflu — and the requisite press conference — at the Kiev airport in the early morning hours of Nov. 2. 

She quarantined nine regions of the country, closed all schools and univeristies, and petitioned the president for $125 million in emergency funds to fight what seemed to be “the plague of the 21st-century plague,” as one Ukrainian put it. Incidentally, she also banned all mass gatherings and political rallies — after she had already had hers. 

Although the World Health Organization concluded that “the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries,” the call for calm was drowned out by Tymoshenko’s drumbeat of action. Pharmacies ran out of surgical masks and medicines as panicked Ukrainians dangerously hoarded supplies. 

The fracas couldn’t have come at a better time for Tymoshenko, the self-styled heroine of the 2004 Orange Revolution, who was losing the race to the very man the revolution disgraced: Viktor Yanukovich, the Russian-backed candidate. 

Tymoshenko’s second term has been marred by vicious backbiting with her onetime Orange Revolution ally, President Victor Yushchenko, her perceived pandering to Russia on gas deals, and her apparent inability to save Ukraine from the absolute implosion of its economy.

So much for all the moaning and groaning about pneumonic plague. 

I’m nominating Ms. Tymoshenko for this year’s Supari Prize, awarded to the politician whose response to pandemic is most likely to make things worse. I’d hate to see a politician more qualified to win.

[S.M. Journal] Reinfection with swine flu not so far-fetched

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

(Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:01:42 +0000)

The old adage was, once you were infected with a strain of influenza, you were golden.  Immune.  Bulletproof.  Superman.  Hence, the absolutely pointless, silly and criminally reckless Swine Flu parties conducted on both sides of the Atlantic.

Well, in light of some stories beginning to circulate, you might parrot the words of former FSU player and ESPN legend Lee Corso: “Not so fast, my friend!”

You see, we are beginning to see evidence of reinfection with swine H1N1v, even after clinical tests proved the victim already HAD the swine!  From the Charleston, West Virginia Daily Mail:

 Tuesday November 24, 2009

CDC confirms Kanawha County pediatrician had swine flu — twice

Health officials say chance of getting swine flu twice rare, but possible

 

by Zack Harold

Daily Mail staff

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — A West Virginia physician who claimed to have contracted the H1N1 virus twice now has proof — from the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, no less — that her claims were true.

Dr. Debra Parsons, a pediatrician at Kid Care West in Cross Lanes, was met with reactions of doubt from local health officials last month when she said two flu tests had come back positive for H1N1, or swine flu.

Parsons first came down with the virus, complete with all the telltale symptoms, in August.

Her son became ill at the same time with the same symptoms. Figuring they had the same bug, Parsons tested herself to see what it was.

The test came back positive for Influenza A, so the lab at Charleston Area Medical Center sent it to be sub-typed. Parsons was positive for H1N1.

Parsons and her son recovered, but in October they started having the same symptoms, but they became much worse.   

They were both tested this time, and the results were the same — they were positive for Influenza A and then H1N1.

“It was swine flu both times,” Parsons said.

Dr. Rahul Gupta, director of the Kanawha-Charleston Health Department, and John Law, spokesman for the West Virginia Division of Health and Human Resources, were skeptical of Parsons’ claim.

Law said the possibility of getting the flu twice was “very, very, very rare.” Gupta said he was “aware of no data or scientific body of research or case reports” that indicated someone could contract H1N1 more than once.

So the specimen from the Parsons’ second flu test was sent to the CDC in Atlanta, where it underwent a preliminary strain reaction test. Parsons says that test is the “gold standard” in differentiating between seasonal and swine flu.

That sample came back a couple weeks ago, and it was positive for H1N1. The CDC then requested a specimen from Parsons’ August flu test.

Last Friday, the results of that test came back positive for H1N1.

 

Novel?  Rare, but not without precedent.  From proMED’s commentary on the incident:

Studies in humans (as opposed to mouse models) performed over 20 years ago with natural infection by different influenza A subtypes suggest that influenza reinfection is not so uncommon, as the CDC has

indicated: rates of reinfection with influenza A/H3N2 have been as high as 63 percent in consecutive seasons in one family study, which included young children (1976/77 and 1977/78) (1); with influenza

A/H2N2 as high as 27 percent (17/62) within 6 months (2). This same report also found a reinfection rate of 17 percent with A/H3N2 amongst students in 1970 and of 32 percent and 69 percent in 2 groups of students in 1972, and of 32 percent in 1983 — with the A/H3N2 viruses showing various degrees of antigenic drift. With A/H1N1, reinfection rates of 9.3 percent and 20 percent were reported for 2 other student groups in 1980 (2).

The related question, of course, is how long one can expect the A/H1N1/2009 vaccine-induced immunity to last — though of course, running parallel to this is ongoing A/H1N1/2009 viral mutation that may require a change in vaccine antigen-specificity and re-immunisation at a later date, anyway.

Now allow Dr. Henry Niman to explain a possibile cause:

The above comments on lab confirmed re-infection of two family members two months apart by swine H1N1.  These confirmations are supported by many anecdotal reports of similar re-infections.  The timing of these infections allowed for easy identification, because at the time there was no seasonal flu, so identification of infections was straight-forward.  Moreover, such infections in school aged children and parents are common because H1N1 infections exploded when school began.

At the time however, the H1N1 virus was evolving slowly, reflecting an ease of infection of a naïve population.  The jump from swine H1N1 into humans allows for infections with low doses of virus.  Low concentration of virus produces a mild infection and a weak antibody response.  The rapid spread creates widespread antibody, but the low level allows for re-infection from individuals with a higher viral load.  A higher viral load can be created in a school environment, where some students could be infected multiple times because of frequent contact with infected students.

Thus, the increased viral load could overcome the weak immune-response and re-infect those infected earlier, leading to a second wave.  However, the higher viral load leads to more serious infections, especially for these not infected in the first wave.  Consequently more previously health young adults develop more serious symptoms, leading to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths.  The higher viral load, especially when combined with receptor binding domain changes such as D225G can lead to the type of cases seen in Ukraine, where a high percentage of young adults develop infections that destroy both lungs in a matter of  a few days.

So we have an interesting situation here.  Apparently, some people were only marginally infected — ever so slightly infected — with H1N1v swine influenza.  Possibly not enough titers of virus entered their system for them to get really, really sick.  And this could explain why so many swine flu sufferers only experience only mild symptoms. 

But either due to a drift of the virus, or a deeper infection with substantially greater titers of virus, or even both — a woman and her son both became re-infected with swine flu.  Clearly, this case will be looked at with great interest by global health authorities.

[Effect Measure] Fifth blogiversary

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

(Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:45:17 -0500)

We just realized that today is our fifth blogiversary. Young if you are a human, prime of life if you are a dog, but Methuselah if you are a blog. We’ve not gone dark for a single day in those five years, although on many we’ve thought about turning off the lights permanently. But we’re still here, the day before Thanksgiving. That’s not a coincidence.

In 2004 Thanksgiving fell on November 25. One of the original reveres (the one tapping these keys, in fact) was making a nuisance of himself in the kitchen as Mrs. R. was trying to prepare one of her virtuouso Thanksgiving dinners. She shooed me out. I retired to my study with my books, my computer and my internet connection. This was just after the tumultuous (and nationally catastrophic) presidential election campaign and I had been compulsively reading political blogs like DailyKos, Eschaton and MyDD (all three of which still exist and are flourishing). As I sat in front of my computer I idly wondered what it would be like to have a blog about public health. At the time the only recognizably public health blog was Jordan Barab’s superb occupational health and safety blog, Confined Space. It was on a platform called blogger, so I went over there and found starting a blog took about 30 seconds. I djinned up a post called The Surgeon General as Appetite Suppressant. The next day I wrote another post because I’d written one the day before. The day after that another, pretty much for the same reason. After a week I changed the original name of the blog from The Confidence Interval to Effect Measure. Don’t ask me why. Another whim. Then more posts, usually two a day. Along the way revere became the reveres and after 18 months we were invited to join the select group at scienceblogs.com. We’ve been here ever since, although about a year ago dropped back to posting just once a day.

We’ve now written about 3300 posts. Five years is a long time to blog every day. We got into the pandemic flu business because we thought it was a lens through which to look at public health. Little did we know. We’re not sure how much longer we’ll want to or need to do it. But no flu season in our lifetime — and we lived through both the pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the latter as a doctor — has been as interesting as this one. We hope it doesn’t kill us or anyone close to us, but with flu anything is possible.

Even blogging some more.

Read the comments on this post…

[Crof's H5N1] Canada: 279 deaths, but a low H1N1 attack rate

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

The Public Health Agency of Canada has published it latest Surveillance of H1N1 deaths. We have suffered 29 new deaths between November 19 and 24, with 13 of them in Quebec. The total for the country is now 279.

Meanwhile, Caroline Alphonso of the Globe and Mail is tweeting about a conference call with Dr. David Butler-Jones. Intriguing fact: He says 5-10% of the Canadian population has been infected with H1N1–a much lower attack rate than most pandemic scenarios had assumed.

And Helen Branswell of The Canadian Press is also tweeting the conference call, saying PHAC reports flu activity 4 to 7 times normal for this time of year.

[Crof's H5N1] Europe: 24 H1N1 deaths in 24 hours

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

via ubAlert.com: A/H1N1 Update for Europe: 24 Fatal Cases in the Past 24 Hours, Death Toll Rises to 714. Excerpt:

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported 24 new fatal cases of the Influenza A/H1N1 during the past 24 hours, as of November 25, 2009. The new fatalities raised Europe’s death toll from the new flu virus to 714. 

Outside the EU and EFTA nations, a total of 7,195 fatal cases have been recorded to date.

The rest of the post offers details by nation.

[Avian Flu Diary] MMWR: 35 Pediatric Flu Deaths Reported Last Week

Posted by Automator On November - 25 - 2009

(Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:21:00 +0000)

 

# 4080

 

Another bad week for influenza pediatric mortality to report. 

 

After a drop in last week’s report to 21 deaths (ordinarily a very high number), the MMWR (US Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) is once again reporting 35 pediatric deaths for week 46, ending November 21st.

 

This week’s FluView report won’t be out  until next Monday, I believe, due to the long Holiday weekend. Today’s release of the MMWR is a day earlier than normal.

 

While 35 pediatric deaths are reported, some of those may be from previous weeks (or even months), as sometimes there is a bit of lag time in testing and reporting. 

 

But the 5-year weekly average for this time of year is Zero

 

 

MMWR

Week 46: 35 new deaths reported
Cumulative 2009: 301 total deaths reported

NH (1), MA (1), RI (2), PA (2), MN (1), MO (1), NC (2), FL (3), TN (1), TX (2), CO (1), NM (8), WA (1), CA (1), IL (3), IN (1), KY (1), NY (1), SC (2)

 

To put this into perspective, 2009 is on track to record 10 times as many pediatric influenza-related deaths as were reported to the CDC in either 2005 or 2006.

 

And, according to the CDC, the actual number of pediatric deaths is likely to be higher than is being reported.