(Fri, 27 Nov 2009 06:25:57 -0500)
It seems swine flu is full of surprises that turn out not to be surprises. Or so it’s claimed. Or not. Here is CDC’s Dr. Anne Schuchat, the agency’s chief health officer and spokesperson on swine flu, responding to NPR’s Melissa Block’s question about what has been her biggest surprise:
Read the rest of this post… | Read the comments on this post…
Via Life in Italy.com: H1N1 flu: Cancer patients bring death toll to 85. Excerpt:
A pair of cancer patients who died on Thursday with the H1N1 flu virus on Thursday brought the death toll in Italy to 85.
Doctors said that both men, a 35-year-old from Turin and a 63-year-old from the island of Ischia, were in serious condition with their illnesses before coming down with the flu.
On Wednesday, Junior Health Minister Ferruccio Fazio said the pandemic’s first peak had come early, spreading at a rate of 100,000 new cases per day by mid-November.
The health ministry has registered an estimated 2.3 million cases of the virus, but Fazio said there could be many more.
OIE has reported an outbreak of H1N1 on a pig farm in Kepulauan Riau province. If I’m reading the report correctly, some 250,000 animals are susceptible, but no pigs have died of the disease. A brief quotation:
“180 nasal swabs and serum samples were collected in pigs in the breeder, wener and farrow/finishing units. 33 samples were positive. … The Ministry of Agriculture officially declared on 23 November 2009 that an outbreak of A/H1N1 occurs in pigs…
“The event is continuing. Weekly follow-up reports will be submitted.”
Via Reuters: Sharp increase in swine flu deaths in France. Excerpt:
The number of deaths in mainland France from the H1N1 swine flu virus jumped in the last week, according to official data Thursday.
The toll rose to 68 deaths as of November 22, with 22 new deaths last week. Six of the 68 victims had no underlying health problems, the country’s health monitoring institute said.
Health minister Roselyne Bachelot said 750,000 people had already been vaccinated but admitted that many vaccination centres were facing long waiting lines.
Via Europapress.es: Veinte nuevas muertes elevan a 135 los fallecidos de gripe A. [20 new H1N1 deaths raise total to 135] Excerpt, with my translation:
Veinte nuevas muertes elevan a 135 los fallecidos por gripe A en España donde, en la semana del 15 al 21 de noviembre, se registraron 158.942 nuevos contagios, casi 3.900 más que la semana anterior, informó el Ministerio de Sanidad y Política Social en comunicado.
Twenty new deaths have raised to 135 the number of those who have of H1N1 in Spain, where, in the week of November 15-21, 158,942 cases were confirmed, almost 3,900 more than in the previous week, according to a news release from the Ministry of Health and Social Policy.
(Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:06:00 +0000)
# 4085
While the numbers are most certainly undercounts, and some of the increase in this week’s fatalities may be due to better surveillance and reporting, both France and the UK are reporting major jumps in their flu-related fatalities over the past week.
France saw an increase in the official death toll from 46 to 68, nearly a 50% jump. The UK meanwhile saw their deadliest week with 31 fatalities, a one week surge of roughly 15%.
As in the US, official (lab-confirmed) deaths from this virus around the world likely represent just `the tip of the iceberg’.
Two reports.
Sharp Increase in Swine Flu Deaths in France
November 26, 2009
PARIS (Reuters) - The number of deaths in mainland France from the H1N1 swine flu virus jumped in the last week, according to official data on Thursday.
The toll rose to 68 deaths as of November 22, with 22 new deaths last week. Six of the 68 victims had no underlying health problems, the country’s health monitoring institute said. Health minister Roselyne Bachelot said 750,000 people had already been vaccinated but admitted that many vaccination centers were facing long waiting lines.
Swine flu: last seven days sees record number of UK deaths
Thirty-one deaths is highest weekly number since outbreak began, although number of infections falls for third week in a row
More people have died from swine flu in the past seven days than in any week since the outbreak began, the Department of Health revealed today.
Thirty-one deaths associated with the H1N1 virus were recorded bringing the total number of fatalities since May to 245. The estimate for new cases in England fell slightly again to 46,000 – the third successive week it has declined.
The unusual pattern of fewer infections but more deaths suggests a second major peak in cases is unlikely to be imminent. Around a million patients – and more health workers – have already been vaccinated against the virus.
Via the Guardian: Swine flu: last seven days sees record number of UK deaths. Excerpt:
More people have died from swine flu in the past seven days than in any week since the outbreak began, the Department of Health revealed today.
Thirty-one deaths associated with the H1N1 virus were recorded bringing the total number of fatalities since May to 245.
The estimate for new cases in England fell slightly again to 46,000 – the third successive week it has declined.
The unusual pattern of fewer infections but more deaths suggests a second major peak in cases is unlikely to be imminent. Around a million patients – and more health workers – have already been vaccinated against the virus.
The government chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said that health officials were now reviewing how long they would continue to operate the telephone and online National Flu Pandemic Service, which dispenses anti-viral drugs.
“It’s unlikely we would take it out of commission this side of Christmas,” he said. “We will have to look hard at in January if the numbers continue to drop off.
“We still can’t be sure there will not be some change in the virus before the winter is out. We can’t be sure normal seasonal flu won’t come back in. The NHS has been working very hard in some parts of the country. Intensive care units have been under a lot of pressure. So we are pleased that all the planning was done.”
(Thu, 26 Nov 2009 16:45:00 +0000)
# 4084
From the VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) we get the latest US pandemic vaccine safety report – dated November 25th, and current through November 20th.
Summary of 2009 Monovalent H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Data – Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System
This report paints a picture of a safe and well tolerated vaccine, one whose safety profile is comparable to the seasonal flu vaccine.
Follow the link to read the whole thing, but here is the summary:
An adverse event is a health problem that is reported after someone gets a vaccine or medicine. Note that persons may experience adverse events shortly after vaccination which may or may not be caused by the vaccine. While VAERS is an important system for helping to find potential signs, VAERS cannot determine if an adverse event was caused by vaccination.
VAERS Summary:
• As of November 20, 2009, 46 million doses of 2009 H1N1 vaccine had been shipped to vaccination providers in the United States.
• As of November 20, 2009, VAERS had received 3182 adverse event reports following 2009 monovalent H1N1 vaccination.
• The vast majority (94%) of adverse events reported to VAERS after receiving the 2009 monovalent H1N1 vaccine have not been serious (e.g., they encompass things like soreness at the vaccine injection site).
• Of the 3182 reports, 177 (6%) were reports that involved what would be considered serious health events (defined as life threatening or resulting in death, major disability, abnormal conditions at birth, hospitalization, or extension of an existing hospitalization)*.
• The percentage of reports involving what would be considered serious health events is not different between 2009 H1N1 and seasonal influenza vaccines. Additionally, no new or unusual events or pattern of adverse events have emerged. VAERS reports continue to be monitored as more vaccine is administered.
• Among the 177 reports of serious health events, there were 11 reports of death.
• The 11 VAERS reports that involve deaths are under review by CDC, FDA and the states where the reported deaths occurred. Preliminary findings do not indicate a common cause or pattern (such as similarities in age, gender, geographic location, illness surrounding death, or underlying medical conditions) to suggest that these deaths were associated with the vaccine. These cases are under further review pending additional medical records (e.g. autopsy reports, medical files).
• VAERS has received 10 reports of Guillian-Barré syndrome (GBS), for which follow-up assessments are underway. In the United States, about 80-160 cases of GBS are expected to occur each week, regardless of vaccination.
Via the Toronto Sun, a report by Helen Branswell of The Canadian Press: WHO: Drug resistant clusters unlikely to signal change in H1N1. Excerpt:
Two clusters of Tamiflu resistance in H1N1 patients probably don’t signal a change in the virus’s susceptibility to this key drug, the World Health Organization’s top flu expert said Thursday.
Dr. Keiji Fukuda said more investigation is needed of the clusters, discovered recently in hospitals in Wales and in North Carolina.
But the cases are in severely immunocompromised patients, a population known to be at risk of developing drug resistance if they are given antivirals or antibiotics for illnesses they cannot shake. A number of isolated cases of Tamiflu resistance have been seen so far in immunocompromised people.
As long as there is no sign the viruses are moving from these patients to infect people with healthy immune systems, there’s no reason to think there’s been a change in the virus, Fukuda suggested.
“What it points out is there needs to be a lot of vigilance taken with those groups of patients, but it probably does not have big implications for the overall pattern of spread or the overall patterns of illness in the general community,” he said from Geneva during the WHO’s weekly briefing on the H1N1 pandemic.
Via The Korea Times: Baby Girl Infected With New Flu Twice. Excerpt:
A two-year-old baby girl in the southeastern city of Gimhae has been diagnosed as suffering from influenza A (H1N1) for a second time, health authorities here said Thursday. This is the first reported case in Korea of a person being infected with the virus twice.
Tests for the virus were positive, two months after she first caught the flu in September. The girl was previously hospitalized when her temperature reached 38.3 degrees Celsius and after the Green Cross Reference Laboratory confirmed that she tested positive for H1N1. She was sent home after recovering.
However, the baby recently began to suffer from respiratory-related ailments and had a recorded temperature of 39.1 degrees on Nov. 19 ― symptoms associated with a new strain of the flu ― and was confirmed to have been re-infected.
Usually, a person who tests positive for the flu develops immunity to the virus and requires no vaccination for future protection. Experts were skeptical about a re-infection and asked a state-run health center in Gimhae to check their results, despite the tests being positive.
Health authorities said that samples from the baby will be sent to the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention to screen whether it is a mutated strain of the new flu, noting that there was a possibility of a misdiagnosis in the initial tests two months ago.
